How did the GOP Convention turn out?

By Jay Warren
WSLS10 Anchor
Published: June 2, 2008

On Friday, I wrote a story on what to look for at the Virginia Republican Convention Saturday. Let’s see what happened.

First, let’s talk turnout. I predicted low turnout could spell trouble for former Governor Jim Gilmore. The smaller the electorate the more likely could be an upset. Further, in a convention setting, a small turnout can be dominated by grassroots supporters since they are generally more motivated than your average voter. In this race, the grassroots supported Gilmore’s opponent, Del. Bob Marshall. And turnout was a key factor. It was only about 3,500. 5,000 to 6,000 were expected. Gilmore won, but less than 1 percent of the vote. He barely survived. Turnout was key.

Second, I mentioned one of the driving issues of the primary campaign: abortion. It did play a pivotal role in the election, as it was the reason the anti-abortion Marshall got into the race and it definitely motivated his supporters. Often an insurgent candidate needs an issue to wage a campaign and stage and upset. Abortion was Marshall’s issue. It almost worked.

Third: the margin. Our political analyst Dr. Bob Denton said Gilmore needed to win the convention by 60 to 65% of the vote. Obviously that didn’t happen. Gilmore limped out of a divided convention, with some now questioning if he is weaker post-convention than he was in the days leading up to the convention.

Fourth, I was looking for enthusiasm. Gilmore needs a united Republican Party to fight a well-funded, popular Mark Warner. His near-loss shows a glaring lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy. Even Republicans are luke warm at best toward him. He has a tough job now of trying to unite a demoralized party.

Finally, I was looking for a “feel the love” moment. Did it happen? Not really. Marshall told me a month before the convention that if he lost the nomination, he would still work to defeat Mark Warner. Notice that he did not say that he would work to elect Jim Gilmore. And he made similar statements following the convention vote. The blood between the two is bad. When will John Warner, George Allen and the other party leaders vocally and publicly endorse Gilmore and then commit to traveling around the commonwealth on his behalf? What they do will send a powerful message to the very grassroots supporters who were questioning Jim Gilmore to begin with.

Jim Gilmore has his work cut out for him and only six months to get it done.