Is Virginia blue?

By Jay Warren
WSLS10 Anchor
Published: November 5, 2008

Is Virginia a blue state?

A quick look at recent trends would certainly make one think so. Consider these facts:

- In 2001 and 2005, Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine won the governor’s mansion.

- In 2006, Democrat Jim Webb defeated US Senator George Allen, an iconic figure in Virginia politics.

- In 2007, the Democrat regained control of the State Senate and increased their margin in the House of Delegates.

- In 2008, the Democrats won the presidential contest in the Commonwealth for the first time in 40 years.

They also captured at least two, and possibly three House seats, meaning they went from a margin of 8 Republicans/3 Democrats to 5 Republicans/5Democrats and one race undecided.

Finally, Democrat Mark Warner crushed former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore in the Senate contest. Warner won almost every Virginia locality and did win EVERY congressional district, even the most Republican.

As I said, the trends are obvious. But, I’m not sure they are complete. My take: we will have a better idea of just how blue Virginia is after the 2009 statewide elections. By all historic markers, the Republicans should prevail. In modern Virginia history, the parties have taken turns controlling the governor’s mansion, each ruling for 8 years. Also, the party that wins the presidency generally loses the governor’s mansion. So, Barack Obama’s victory should mean the Republicans will take the governor’s mansion.

If the Democrats prevail in ‘09, then Virginia may have made the conversion from red to blue. We’ll know in just 12 months.