First thoughts

By Jay Warren
WSLS10 Anchor
Published: January 17, 2008

Welcome to my blog. It’s been a long time coming, and I’ve had plenty of time to think about the focus of this regular posting. Should it include random thoughts on the day and what I’ve experienced? Should it include information that I didn’t have time to include in my story of the day? Should it provide some additional context to our political coverage? Should it shed some additional light on how we collect the news?

What’s the answer? A little bit of everything! So, I’m going to kick it off with a look at this weekend’s big news event: the Democratic Caucuses in Nevada.

Here’s what I’m looking for on Saturday:

1)    What will the Culinary Union turnout be? This politically potent organization has endorsed Barack Obama. If there’s a heavy union turnout, he could have a good night.

2)    On the union topic, will the lawsuit arguing that the at-large caucus locations are unfair prevail? If it does, this could provide Hillary Clinton with much needed momentum. If it doesn’t, score this one for Obama.

3)    Where are the candidates spending their time? If Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are in Nevada on Friday and Saturday, we’ll have a good idea that all three think the state is competitive. But, if we see one or two candidates move to South Carolina or Florida, it’s a likely sign that the trends are leaning heavily toward one candidate and the others don’t want to waste valuable time and resources.

4)    Will the media care what happens? The Nevada caucus has never mattered in the past, so the East Coast based media is not accustomed covering it or factoring it into their storylines on the horserace. It might take a huge victory by one candidate (10 points or more) for the media to pay these caucuses much attention.

5)    Will Nevada care or participate? As noted, this is the first truly contested caucus in Nevada. Unlike voters in Iowa, the people of Nevada won’t be as accustomed to the strange rules that come with caucuses. Will turnout be low? And, if it is high, will there be a lot of confusion?

6)    If Edwards comes in a distant third, will he continue his fight for the nomination? All indications point to the answer being yes. He will likely have the money to compete in South Carolina and the Feb. 5th states. But, will a bad showing in Nevada make him less and less relevant?

Just a few thoughts as we look to Nevada. Tomorrow, I’ll handicap the Republican race in South Carolina