How will John McCain play in VA?

By Jay Warren
WSLS10 Anchor
Published: February 7, 2008

John McCain did it. He came back from the political dead to most certainly get the GOP nomination. There are still a few more battles to be fought between him and the only two remaining candidates: Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee. But, McCain will easily win enough of those to prevail.

So, how will Sen. McCain play in Virginia? Let’s remember that it was Virginia that effectively stopped his surge in the 2000 GOP presidential contests handing George Bush the nomination.

McCain has never played well with social conservatives like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell. Remember his comments during the 2000 race basically thumbing his nose at those religious leaders? Those wounds have yet to heal as we see some social conservatives and other conservative leaders continuing to attack McCain. After the 2004 election, Rev. Jerry Falwell told me under no circumstances would John McCain ever be the GOP nominee. The wounds are still there.

McCain has recently begun to pick up Virginia endorsements, but they haven’t come easily. Initially former AG and GOP gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore and the Rev. Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Guiliani. Likewise, in the beginning our current AG Bob McDonnell and former Sen. and Gov. George Allen were backing Fred Thompson. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling backed Mitt Romney. It was a divided field and the only high profile Republican backing McCain was Sen. John Warner. Now, as the other candidates drop out, McCain is slowly picking up support. Kilgore and Allen are both on board.

McCain may always have problems with the more conservative and evangelical segments of the Republican Party. But, he should perform well with the more pro-business, Main Street Republicans. Further, Virginia’s huge military presence should be a natural fit for the former Vietnam Vet. Also, Virginia has a sizeable independent population and is increasingly moving to the purple shade on the map. That means it is more moderate and McCain performs very well with moderate, independent voters.

All of that indicates that John McCain will almost assuredly compete in Virginia and may very well maintain the longstanding tradition of Virginia voting Republican in presidential contests.