By Jay Warren
WSLS10 Anchor
Published: May 2, 2008

We are four days out from Tuesday’s Roanoke City Council elections. What will happen?

It’s hard to predict, as there are few to no major driving issues in this campaign. Think about it, there is no Victory Stadium, no major scandal, no pay raise fight. It seems that the biggest charge against the sitting council is that it’s too closed, that it is not open enough to the voters. Is that enough of a reason to kick an incumbent mayor and two incumbent council members out of office? We’ll see on Tuesday.

Here’s what I’ll be looking for Tuesday.

1) High turnout. That could spell trouble for Mayor Nelson Harris as it may indicate a wave of voters heading to the polls to voice their dissatisfaction.
2) Low turnout. That could be a coin toss for what it means. Normally it would favor the incumbent/status quo. However, we are more likely to see surprises when there’s low turnout. Remember, longtime Roanoke leader Bev Fitzpatrick was supposed to coast to a big win in the February Democratic Primary. Fitzpatrick lost and he believes it because his supporters assumed he’d win and stayed home.
3) Turnout in specific neighborhoods. A very high turnout in the Northwest part of town, which is predominately African American, is more likely to favor Bowers. A low turnout there would likely sink his campaign. Likewise high turnout in South Roanoke and Raleigh Court could secure Harris a second term.
4) Republican turnout. If Republicans turnout in record numbers will that signal a Bowers victory? I was surprised to see a number of prominent Republicans at Bowers announcement ceremony. He is a former Democratic mayor, congressional candidate, and council member. Still, it appears Republicans are aligning with him over Harris, a Democrat. If they come out big on Tuesday that should help Bowers tremendously.
5) Democratic sweep. If the three Democrats running for Council win, then is it more likely that Harris will also win a second term? I’m betting yes. But, if Brian Wishneff, a former Democrat who is running as an independent in this election, wins, will that signal a Bowers victory? The two have been campaigning together and are sounding similar themes against the current council. If either wins, I’d bet the other does as well.

Bottom line: this is an unpredictable election. Mayor Harris said today that the race could go either way. It should make for an interesting night!