Will immigration matter?

By Matt Dooley
Production Coordinator
Published: January 23, 2008

It won’t be long before the Republican and Democratic candidates for president will be making their pitches in Virginia. And for the Republicans, expect to hear a lot about immigration. It is and has been a hot button issue for Republicans. My advice: don’t buy into the hype that it will be the deciding issue of the primary.

For several election cycles, dating back as far as President Bush’s re-election, candidates have trotted out immigration as a central theme of their campaigns. Many times it is depicted as the secret weapon for Republicans. In 2005, Jerry Kilgore’s gubernatorial campaign believed they could get back into the race by running illegal immigration ads in Northern Virginia. It didn’t work and he lost by 5 points statewide and by a much larger margin in NOVA.

In 2006, immigration was trumpeted to be the issue that would save the Republican majority in Congress. We were told that George Allen would use the issue to beat back sagging poll numbers. Again, it didn’t work. Alllen went on to lose to a political newcomer.

In 2007, the Republicans again used immigration as a “defining” issue. It was used in several campaigns across the Commonwealth including in the Senate race between Democrat Mike Breiner and Republican Ralph Smith. Smith won, but by an unconvincing margin and it would be difficult to say immigration made the difference. Republican challengers tried to use immigration to beat Sens. Chuck Colgan and Roscoe Reynolds. They failed in both cases. I was told then by many political insiders that immigration was becoming the new value issue, eclipsing or at least equaling the importance of abortion and gay marriage in the minds of many socially conservative voters. That may be true, but we can’t say that immigration made a significant difference in any race.

Now we’re into 2008 and again immigration is being used as a wedge issue. The Republican presidential candidates have been beating each other up over it for a month now. Mitt Romney, who has a more conservative stance on the issue, used immigration in Iowa against Mike Huckabee and in New Hampshire against John McCain. He lost both races.

This is not to say that immigration isn’t a valid issue and one worthy of debate. It certainly is. But illegal immigration as an issue may have more resonance in border states where the immigration situation has reached a crisis. Virginia does not appear to be there yet. So, when the candidates arrive in Virginia and trumpet immigration as their secret weapon, be weary. If 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and the early 2008 contest are any indicator, immigration will not be the deciding issue.