Will Virginia be a battleground in the 2008 election?

By Jay Warren
WSLS10 Anchor
Published: April 1, 2008

Should you buy into the current argument that Virginia be in play during this presidential election? Many Democrats are claiming that the Old Dominion is turning purple and will be a major battleground in 2008. They point to the Democrats victories for governor in 2001 and 2005 and Jim Webb’s surprising upset of Sen. George Allen in 2006. The Democrats also made significant gains in the 2007 General Assembly races, retaking control of the State Senate and picking up several House seats.

But all of those are statewide races. Virginia hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1964 and LBJ. So if Virginia is a battleground, it will represent a huge shift in the commonwealth’s politics.

Last week, I interviewed former Governor and former Republican Party Chair Jim Gilmore. He’s running for the US Senate this year and is busy fundraising across the commonwealth and country. Gilmore said repeatedly that McCain will do well in Virginia. He believes that Sens. Obama and Clinton are too liberal to appeal to a majority of Virginians.

Is Gilmore right?

It seems to be he is certainly right about one thing: John McCain should be a very good fit for Virginia. McCain is in the moderate to conservative end of the party and he has strong appeal with independents and conservative Democrats. Virginia has a sizeable population of more conservative Democrats and an ever-growing independent population. Check that for McCain. Sen. McCain also has a lengthy history with the military. With Virginia’s strong military presence in NOVA and the Hampton Roads area, McCain should sell well.

On paper John McCain appears to be tailor made for Virginia. Does a Democrat have a chance in 2008?

Most political observers say Hillary Clinton does not. She performed poorly in the Democrat primary here, only winning the 9th Congressional District while losing the rest of the commonwealth by almost 20 points. She may be too polarizing for Virginia voters.

But, many of those same observers say Barack Obama could put Virginia in play. He did win the primary here big and in the process brought a lot of new voters into the mix. He has the backing of Gov. Tim Kaine, who is putting a lot of effort into getting Obama the nomination. Other Democrats have jumped on board as well including former Governor and current Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder and US Reps. Bobby Scott, Jim Moran, and Rick Boucher. Democratic grassroots organizations like the political blog RaisingKaine are also enthusiastically supporting Obama.

If Obama gets the Democratic nomination, it’s fair to say Virginia will at least be a part of the conversation about competitive states. Will we be the Florida of 2000 or the Ohio of 2004? I don’t think so. But, could we get more attention during this presidential election than Virginia has seen in decades? Yes, most definitely. That means that Obama may be more likely than any Democrat in at least a generation to devote campaign time, organization, and money to trying to win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes.

And, if Obama were to pull of an upset in Virginia, it is likely he will have sealed his ticket to the White House. It’s hard to see a scenario where John McCain could win the White House without winning Virginia.

Get ready. It could be an interesting ride.