By SEAN MUSSENDEN
Media General News Service
Published: May 8, 2008

WASHINGTON - North Carolina’s presidential primary held an important lesson for states that rushed to move up their contests this year: Sometimes, it pays to be patient.
As Barack Obama’s grip on the Democratic nomination solidifies, political analysts point to three pivotal moments in the long campaign that put him over the top: His victory in the first contest in Iowa. His string of nine straight wins in mid-February that gave him a delegate lead from which Hillary Clinton never recovered. And the apparent knockout blow he dealt her in North Carolina.
In a bid for more influence in picking presidents, many states pushed their contests to early February this year.
Florida and Michigan moved theirs even earlier, to January. That strategy backfired because national Democratic leaders had previously warned them that the results would not count.
North Carolina went in the opposite direction. In 2004, it held caucuses in April. To reward the state for holding its primary in May this year, the national party made it a richer prize by giving it 25 percent more delegates than last time.
More importantly, the late date just happened to put North Carolina in position to play kingmaker.
“I never expected this, to tell you the truth,” said Muriel Offerman, the treasurer of the state Democratic party. “But it’s been a big plus for North Carolina. We have not seen this level of excitement and interest in a presidential race in a long time.”
The last time North Carolina voters had even a little influence in a presidential primary was the 1988 Democratic contest, said Ferrel Guillory, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina.
That year, North Carolina held its primary on “Super Tuesday” in early March, joining other Southern states. Al Gore won, but Michael Dukakis went on to capture the nomination.
A generation has passed since the state last played a major role in the presidential primaries, Guillory said. In the Democratic contest in late March 1976, Jimmy Carter beat George Wallace, effectively knocking out his main competitor in the South.
On the Republican side that day, Ronald Reagan beat Gerald Ford in North Carolina after losing the first six contests.
Though it did not lead to Reagan’s nomination - Ford defeated him that year - his victory in North Carolina gave his campaign new life and set up his run four years later.
“If he had not won here in 1976, he would not have won in 1980,” Guillory said, citing statements by Reagan’s advisors.
There was some discussion of moving North Carolina’s primary up this year, said Jerry Meek, chair of the state Democratic party. One proposal would have set the presidential primary for the first Tuesday in February, and left the state primaries in May. Officials decided that running two elections would cost too much.
At the time, almost no one thought the Democratic outcome would still be in doubt in May. The conventional wisdom held that the contest was likely to end on or shortly after Super Tuesday, the first Tuesday in February.
In 2004, seven states held contests on that date. This year, hoping to have more of a say, 23 states and territories did, earning it a bigger nickname: Mega Tuesday. But ultimately, those contests settled nothing, as Obama and Clinton effectively split the awarded delegates.
Ironically, by waiting until the tail end of the contest, North Carolina voters had far more say in determining the nominee.
“I think it’s the defining moment in the presidential campaign,” said Rep. G.K. Butterfield, D-N.C., and an Obama supporter. “When the history of this election is written, it will be said that North Carolina brought an end to the long campaign. Four months ago, there was no way I thought that would happen.”