Mark Warner leads Jim Gilmore by 26% in new poll

By JEFF E. SCHAPIRO
Media General News Staff
Published: October 3, 2008

Heading into tonight’s televised U.S. Senate debate, Democrat Mark R. Warner enjoys a comfortable—but narrower—lead over Republican Jim Gilmore, according to the latest Richmond Times-Dispatch Poll.

Warner is ahead of Gilmore by 26 percentage points, 57 percent to 31 percent. Last month, Warner was up by 33 percentage points, 61 percent to 28 percent.

Warner and Gilmore are vying for the seat of retiring Republican John Warner, who’s been in Washington since 1979. The two Warners are not related.

The Times-Dispatch Poll was conducted Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington. It’s based on interviews with 625 likely voters. Results could vary 4 percentage points in either direction.

Warner and Gilmore appear this evening at 7 o’clock in their first only broadcast debate on statewide television. It will be the third time since July that the candidates have faced off.

The Virginia Senate contest has been shaping up for months as a lopsided affair.

Warner has a significant advantage in fund raising, and his favorability rating is considerably higher than Gilmore’s—59 percent to 28 percent.

According to The Times-Dispatch Poll, Warner leads Gilmore in every region of the state.

In Northern Virginia—Warner’s base—the Democrat is ahead, 61 percent to 28 percent. In the Richmond area—Gilmore’s home—Warner is up, 56 percent to 37 percent.

Warner also is pulling Republican votes. Roughly one in five self-identified supporters of GOP presidential candidate John McCain is plans to vote for the former governor.

Gilmore, too, is a former governor.

The Richmond records of the two men have largely driven the Senate campaign. Gilmore cut the car tax, but left a hefty cash shortfall for Warner that the Democrat erased by going back on an election promise not to raise taxes.