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New poll shows Southwest Virginia is expected to support Trump less in 2020 than in 2016

Trump won Southwest Virginia by 37% in 2016, in 2020, this poll has his lead only at 10%

LEFT: Joe Biden delivers his acceptance speech on the fourth night of the Democratic National Convention from the Chase Center on August 20, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) RIGHT: U.S. President Donald Trump comes out from the residence prior to a Marine One departure from the South Lawn of the White House July 31, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
LEFT: Joe Biden delivers his acceptance speech on the fourth night of the Democratic National Convention from the Chase Center on August 20, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) RIGHT: U.S. President Donald Trump comes out from the residence prior to a Marine One departure from the South Lawn of the White House July 31, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) (2020 Getty Images)

ROANOKE, Va. – If the election were held today, Joe Biden would claim Virginia’s 13 electoral college votes.

That’s according to a Roanoke College poll published Wednesday, which states the former vice president holds a 14-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters in Virginia.

Among those polled, only 5% said they were undecided about their candidate.

While Biden leads in Virginia as a whole, when taking a regional look at the state, not everyone is backing the Biden/Harris ticket.

RegionTrumpBidenLeader
Southwest Virginia54%44%+10% Trump
Southside39%50%+11% Biden
Shenandoah Valley63%22%+41% Trump
Central/Richmond38%51%+13% Biden
Northern Virginia26%67%+41% Biden
Tidewater44%50%+6% Biden

Looking back to 2016, Hillary Clinton gathered 5.3% more of the vote than Trump to win the state.

Using the same regions as above, here’s a look at how 2016′s presidential votes looked in Virginia.

RegionTrumpClintonWinner
Southwest Virginia69%31%+37% Trump
Southside62%38%+23% Trump
Shenandoah Valley66%34%+32% Trump
Central/Richmond46%54%+8% Clinton
Northern Virginia34%66%+32% Clinton
Tidewater47%53%+6% Clinton

The table below shows how Roanoke College defined those six regions.

Southwest VirginiaSouthsideShenandoah ValleyCentral/RichmondNorthern VirginiaTidewater
Alleghany CountyBedford CountyAmherst CountyAlbemarle CountyAlexandriaAccomack County
Bland CountyBrunswick CountyAugusta CountyAmelia CountyArlington CountyCharles City County
Botetourt CountyCampbell CountyBath CountyAppomattox CountyFairfaxChesapeake
BristolCharlotte CountyBuena VistaBuckingham CountyFairfax CountyEssex County
Buchanan CountyDanvilleClarke CountyCaroline CountyFalls ChurchFranklin
Carroll CountyEmporiaFrederick CountyCharlottesvilleFauquier CountyGloucester County
CovingtonFranklin CountyHarrisonburgChesterfield CountyFredericksburgHampton
Craig CountyGreensville CountyHighland CountyColonial HeightsLoudoun CountyIsle of Wight County
Dickenson CountyHalifax CountyLexingtonCulpeper CountyManassasJames City County
Floyd CountyHenry CountyPage CountyCumberland CountyManassas ParkKing and Queen County
GalaxLynchburgRockbridge CountyFluvanna CountyPrince William CountyKing George County
Giles CountyMartinsvilleShenandoah CountyGoochland CountyStafford CountyKing William County
Grayson CountyMecklenburg CountyStauntonGreene CountyLancaster County
Lee CountyNottoway CountyWarren CountyHanover CountyLunenburg County
Montgomery CountyPittsylvania CountyWaynesboroHenrico CountyMathews County
NortonPrince Edward CountyWinchesterHopewellMiddlesex County
Patrick CountySouthampton CountyLouisa CountyNew Kent County
Pulaski CountySussex CountyMadison CountyNewport News
RadfordNelson CountyNorfolk
RoanokeOrange CountyNorthampton County
Roanoke CountyPetersburgNorthumberland County
Russell CountyPowhatan CountyPoquoson
SalemRappahannock CountyPortsmouth
Scott CountyRichmondPrince George County
Smyth CountySpotsylvania CountyRichmond County
Tazewell CountyWilliamsburgSuffolk
Washington CountySurry County
Wise CountyVirginia Beach
Wythe CountyWestmoreland County

The poll was conducted between Aug. 9 and Aug. 22 and 566 likely voters were interviewed.

The margin of error for this poll was +4.1%.

Only people who are currently registered to vote and are at least somewhat likely to vote in November were included.

Roanoke College said that quotas were used to balance regions within the state and that data was statistically weighted for region, gender, race and age. Weighting was done to match the 2016 Presidential election exit poll in Virginia.

Click here to see the full details of this Roanoke College poll.


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