MARTINSVILLE, Va. – Between 2010 and 2040, the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center projects a 25.8 percent decrease in Martinsville's population.
According to the U.S. Census, the city's population was just over 13,800 in 2010, meaning according to the center's projection the population would be around 10,500 in 2040.
The center began putting the projections together in 2015 after its initial study in 2012 when it took over the responsibility of producing the studies from the Virginia Employment Commission.
"The assumption is, what change we observed since 2000 to 2015 would continue into 2040," said Weldon Cooper Center Demographics Research Group Director Qian Cai.Â
While an assumption may not seem like an accurate way of determining the projections, the center tested the methodology on previous U.S. census reports and found it to have a small margin of error.
"We found our 10 year projection during our test was less than 5 percent," Cai explained.
If the projection holds true, the biggest impact could continue to be felt by the city's school district.
A declining population in recent years has meant less students in school.
Fewer students in school has meant less state funding the district receives, and with the city's budget already tight and expected to get tighter in the future the district needs as much state funding as possible.
Superintendent Dr. Zeb Talley isn't worried though.
"I really foresee this area growing. I really do," said Talley. "I know our enrollment is stable."
He said the district does monitor the projections, but he doesn't foresee them having much of an impact.
"We plan to maintain the same quality education and to work on improvements because we want our educational system to be a drawing card and I feel like in the next couple of years it will be," said Talley.
The center hopes to release its next study in 2019.