It's no doubt that a large chunk of the area needs rain, but starting Monday, July 23 - we may start to get more than we need. In looking back at past events, late June of 2006 rings a bell when looking at next week's pattern.
That's when Roanoke and Blacksburg saw more than half a foot of rain in a 3-5 day span. Other areas like Danville and Lynchburg still saw 1-3 inches of rain in that time frame.
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Looking at the weather map from that date, we can see moisture feeding in from the Atlantic towards a stationary front. That warm, moist Atlantic air got lifted along the front providing us with rounds of heavy rain.
Looking ahead to next week, the pattern is eerily similar. A large area of high pressure will be directing Atlantic moisture towards a stationary front near the area. This would imply rounds of heavy rain that could lead to flooding.
Forecast models are suggesting a possible 3-6 inches of rain between Sunday and next Thursday (July 22 to July 27). It wouldn't shock us to see an isolated total higher than that, given the tropical moisture moving into the area.
This would certainly lead to flooding concerns, despite the fact that we've been rather dry lately. As we continue to watch after this pattern, be sure to stay tuned for updates on the timing of rain and the potential impacts we could face.