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How our weekend cool-down could impact Florence's path

May mean bad news for the East Coast

ROANOKE, Va. – As of Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said that Hurricane Florence weakened to a Category 1 hurricane over the open Atlantic. That, by no means, implies that this storm is done for.

Those of us with interests in the East Coast of the United States need to be paying attention to this storm. While an East Coast landfall is not a guarantee, it is a possibility mid-to-late next week (September 12-14).

The area of high pressure that wedges some cooler air, clouds and fog into our area this Sunday will move east over the northern Atlantic next week. Clockwise winds around this high pressure system could actually wind up guiding Florence closer to the East Coast.

As Florence moves into warmer water and into a region with less wind shear, we expect that it will restrengthen Monday and Tuesday. Still, at this point, it will be offshore.

Beyond Monday and Tuesday, Florence's track is uncertain, as shown by the spaghetti plots in the graphic below.

Its track will depend, partly, on that high pressure system I just wrote about. The intensity and location of that high will help determine whether Florence slams into the East Coast or remains offshore.

If Florence does indeed make landfall along the East Coast of the United States, it would be quite the rarity. Here's why.

We went through storms in the past that have been around where Florence currently is. None of those storms went onto make landfall on the East Coast.

That's not to say it can't happen. History is made to be broken.

That's why, for anyone with interests from coastal Georgia to New England, we need to wait-and-see. Be attentive to this storm, but it's not time to panic.

We'll keep you updated on air, online, on social media and on the StormTeam 10 app.


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