ROANOKE, Va. – As Florence nears the North Carolina coastline, we will be on the very outer edge of the storm for the next 48 hours. This means gusty wind and perhaps some scattered showers and storms passing from east to west Friday and Saturday.
As Florence itself slowly moves west, near the North and South Carolina border, high pressure will guide it north along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.
The southeast winds around what's left of Florence may enhance rain totals in the Mountain Empire, which is where we expect to see the most rain between Saturday and Tuesday. Most of this will fall, though, between Sunday and Monday. Even still, outside of that area - two to five inches of rain is expected throughout a good chunk of southwest and central Virginia. We have yet to change this forecast since Tuesday evening.
With how wet the ground has been, it won't take much for flooding to become an issue. Throw in the terrain, and a few mudslides cannot be ruled out west of the Blue Ridge Parkway.
As of Thursday afternoon, it would take 2-3" of rain in six hours for flooding to occur in the higher elevations. It would take 3-4" of rain in six hours otherwise.