46ºF

Feeling like May Monday; potential for flooding later this week

A very spring-like pattern takes shape this week in more ways than one

Near-record warmth Monday afternoon
Near-record warmth Monday afternoon

ROANOKE, Va. – High pressure near Florida is our friend Monday, forcing the jet stream north and allowing us to get a little taste of spring. High temperatures during the afternoon soar into the upper 60s and low to mid 70s, challenging records in Roanoke, Blacksburg and Lynchburg. The record for Danville is 80°, and that’s going to be very hard (if not impossible) to beat.

High pressure begins to buckle, meaning more clouds Monday night and the chance for showers through about midday Tuesday.

FutureTracker - Tuesday, 02/04/2020
FutureTracker - Tuesday, 02/04/2020

A front nearby Wednesday will trigger a few more showers, but the main concern comes Thursday. When looking at the upper levels of the atmosphere, we see a system digging deep into the Gulf. This is when we tend to get our very heavy rain-makers, and Thursday is no exception.

Upper Air Energy - Thursday, 02/06/2020
Upper Air Energy - Thursday, 02/06/2020

While some periods of rain will occur during the day, we’ll notice this system pull in warmer air during the evening and fling that Gulf moisture our way. We’ll likely see a line of very intense rain and gusty wind develop Thursday evening into late Thursday night (moving west to east).

Rain totals from Tuesday through Thursday will range from 2-4″ (isolated higher), with a good chunk of that coming late Thursday into Thursday night. We’ll be monitoring the potential for flooding very closely.

FutureTracker - Rainfall Tuesday through Thursday
FutureTracker - Rainfall Tuesday through Thursday

Once this passes, we’ll turn drier, colder and windier Friday with mountain snow in the morning. We’ll track another system Saturday that could bring additional rain and mountain snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning. At the moment, it doesn’t appear you’ll have to cancel plans for the weekend of 2/6 to 2/8.


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