Snow accumulation becoming more likely Saturday night, Sunday morning

ROANOKE, Va. – Friday Midday Update

For the second Sunday in a row, most of the area is looking at a fresh coat of snow on the ground.

After combing over the latest data and taking antecedent weather conditions into account, we are forecasting 3-6″ of snow for the New River Valley, Roanoke Valley, parts of the Lynchburg area and Highlands. Where we foresee lower snow totals is toward Southside. This is where the air may be warm enough to start with rain and sleet Saturday night.

We may start with snow accumulating on the grass before covering the roads. In higher elevations, snow likely covers everything, since you’re colder up top. There is also the possibility for locally higher totals, given the amount of rising air above us. That can sometimes lead to a narrow band of heavier snow.

Keep scrolling for the timeline and possible impacts with this next storm.

Friday 3 a.m. Update

Let’s dive into the timing, latest forecast models and possible impacts.

Timing

As an area of low pressure rides up from the southwest, and is guided by a larger overall pattern, we should see this in and out within a 8-to-12 hour time frame.

This likely begins Saturday night after 10 p.m. near the North Carolina-Virginia line. Temperatures will likely be borderline at this time, so you could see snow mix in with rain at first especially the farther east of the Parkway you go.

This will then expand from southwest to northeast through early Sunday morning as mostly (if not all) snow.

As energy is transferred to the coast and high pressure sends drier air our way, most of the wintry precipitation will be out by 7 or 8 a.m.

So yes, it will be dry by the time the Super Bowl comes on. However, there will still be some trouble spots on untreated side roads Sunday evening. Temperatures then fall into the 20s by Monday morning, which could keep side roads slick.

Impacts

As mentioned above, the roads will likely be the main issue with this particular storm. Now, snow may start out accumulating on the grass before covering the roads. That’s especially because we’ll be pretty warm (40s and 50s) Friday and Saturday afternoons.

As for power outages or blowing snow, that all appears unlikely. Once high pressure comes into the mix later Sunday, the wind will be pretty calm (which was not the case with our previous storm).

More Immediate Forecast

Prior to Saturday night and Sunday, the weather looks rather uneventful. A weak cold front passes through the area Friday morning. On the back end of it, we’ll be breezy and seasonable (temperature-wise).

Assuming that the sky stays clear enough by Saturday evening, make sure to look up early for the International Space Station. It will fly over shortly after 6:24.

Looking into next week, the jet stream will be nearby. That will offer an opportunity or two for precipitation to develop.

Most forecast data shows Arctic air winding up in the Northern U.S. early in the week, with the possibility that it unleashes on most of the country later in the week into Valentine’s Day weekend.

With the jet stream to our south, we’ll have to watch for another possible round of wintry weather next weekend. Stay tuned.