ROANOKE, Va. – We’re coming off a really pretty day to start the weekend, but the weather will be more active in the days ahead.
Before I get to the specifics on rain chances, I want to give you a bit of an explainer on what exactly we mean when we forecast a 40-percent or 70-percent chance of showers.
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Basically, you can think about the rain forecast in terms of the coverage of showers on the radar. If fewer communities will see rain, the forecast chances will naturally be lower.
On days we’re forecasting 80, 90 or 100-percent chances for rain (which are admittedly pretty rare), we expect most of our area to receive measurable precipitation.
For today, we’re closer to the spotty/isolated category (the far left box above) for rain chances. Midday and afternoon will be the prime time for rain to move in.
We’re also forecasting lots of clouds and slightly cooler temperatures than Saturday. Look for highs to range from the mid 60s in the New River Valley to the mid 70s in Southside.
On Monday, we’re in the “scattered” or “numerous” category for rain as shower chances increase. Despite the higher coverage, we won’t have flooding or severe storms to deal with.
Look for temperatures similar to today, along with similar cloud cover.
If you compare the above map and the map from Sunday at 4 p.m., it’s easy to see why we’re forecasting higher rain chances!
Look for rain coverage to come back down to today’s levels on Tuesday. Temperatures will start to rise closer to mid-May averages and we’ll see a few more breaks in the clouds.
An expansive area of high pressure at the surface and a ridge aloft will combine to give us sunny, dry and warmer conditions from Wednesday through the first half of the weekend.
It’s not out of the question that some areas could reach 90 degrees or higher during that timeframe! That would be the warmest air of the season so far.