Occasional showers, afternoon storms likely on Mother's Day

ROANOKE, Va. – It won't be raining all 24 hours of the day Sunday. However, occasional showers and afternoon storms do look likely for the StormTeam 10 viewing area. Just make sure to have a Plan B for Mom!

We'll start you out with the big picture, which includes an indecisive front located in the Mid-Atlantic region. With a warm front located just north of here, temperatures should have no problem reaching the 68-74° mark. That means enough warm air and humidity for storms to feed off of.

Showers in the morning will be scattered, but could still be heavy given the amount of moisture around. Between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m., as a cold front inches closer (pictured above near Knoxville, TN), there will be the chance for a strong-to-severe storm (not an outbreak).

I expect that the Storm Prediction Center will move our 'Marginal' risk (Level 1 of 5) farther east, toward areas near and east of the Blue Ridge.

Anything that forms will contain heavy rain that could lead to hydroplaning and/or brief, minor flooding. Gusty wind, capable of producing localized tree damage, is possible too. While the threat for a tornado is low, it isn't necessarily zero. There are some indications of a little rotation (not like what we saw on April 19th) south of Highway 460.

Some showers will linger beyond sunset Sunday, but nothing looks too terribly widespread or severe. Our pesky cold front finally passes through by Monday, meaning that the wind will pick up and humidity will drop.

Trailing this cold front will be an area of low pressure at about the 15-20,000 foot level. This will swing an additional batch of rain east of the Parkway Monday afternoon.

Otherwise, it will bring in some cooler air for Tuesday, along with some additional high wind gusts. 

We'll start to warm up mid-to-late next week.