What are the chances Virginia sees a White Christmas?

Historically, chances are slim

By Jonathan Kegges - Meteorologist

ROANOKE, Va - December has provided the region with a lot of cold and snow, but does that mean we'll have the white stuff when the big man comes down the chimney? A White Christmas is defined as 1" of snow on the ground or falling on Christmas Day.

Historically, the "best" place to see a White Christmas locally, at about 10-20 percent, lies along and west of I-81. It's a little better in the Highlands and along the western slopes in West Virginia. Christmas is white less than 10 percent of the time across most of Southside and Central Virginia.

The last white Christmas in Roanoke was back in 2010 and it looks like the White Christmas drought will continue this year.

After a very wavy jet stream for much of the month which allowed for cold and snow through much of the Mid-Atlantic and South, the jet will level off a bit. When this happens, milder air tends to win out and the weather is overall quieter. After a bigger storm that will bring rain Thursday and Friday, this pattern takes over.

There could be a little snow on the back side of this for the Highlands and slopes of West Virginia, but if you want a White Christmas this year, you'll likely have to travel. Minnesota seems to be a good bet!

The only place in our region that has a VERY slim chance at a White Christmas will be in West Virginia. If you are a fan of snow, once we enter 2019, the pattern will once again get very cold and potentially very snowy.

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