Why Democratic Departures From the House Have Republicans Salivating
WASHINGTON — With 18 months left before the midterms, a spate of Democratic departures from the House is threatening to erode the party’s slim majority in the House and imperil President Joe Biden’s far-reaching policy agenda. In the past two months, five House Democrats from competitive districts have announced they won’t seek reelection next year. They include Rep. Charlie Crist of Florida, who on Tuesday kicked off a campaign for governor, and Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio, who will run for the Senate seat being vacated by Rob Portman. Three other Democrats will leave seats vacant in districts likely to see significant change once they are redrawn using the data from the 2020 census, and several more are weighing bids for higher office. Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times An early trickle of retirements by House members in competitive districts is often the first sign of a coming political wave. In the 2018 cycle, 48 House Republicans didn’t seek reelection — and Democrats won 14 of those vacancies. Now Republicans are salivating over the prospect of reversing that dynamic and erasing the Democrats’ six-seat advantage. “The two biggest headaches of any cycle are redistricting and retirements, and when you have both in one cycle it’s a migraine,” said former Rep. Steve Israel of New York, who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2012 and 2014. Democrats face other vexing challenges as well: Republican legislators control redistricting in key states where they can draw boundaries in their favor. Redistricting alone — with Republicans controlling mapmaking in three times as many districts as Democrats — could provide Republicans the seats they need to control the House. And historic political trends almost always work against the president’s party in midterm elections. The prospect of losing the House majority adds a greater level of urgency for the Biden administration and congressional Democrats eager to push through expansive policy proposals. It also raises questions about the staying power of Democrats, after an election in which they barely ousted an unpopular president while suffering a surprising number of down-ballot losses in races they expected to win. The results appeared to blunt the momentum the party generated in 2018 when it picked up 41 seats in the House. This could be just the beginning of the Democratic departures: The high season for congressional retirements typically comes in early fall after members spend the August recess taking the political temperature of their districts. Further complicating the picture for Democrats is the Census Bureau’s monthslong delay in completing the reapportionment process and delivering to states the final demographic and block-level population data. That has left the parties’ House committees in a state of suspended animation, unable in many instances to recruit candidates and devise electoral strategy. While each day brings announcements of new 2022 candidates, many are not being specific about which district they are running in. Dozens more are waiting until the fall, when they will see the new boundaries, to decide whether they will formalize their campaigns. “It’s like going to war on a battlefield but you don’t know where you’re fighting, when you’re fighting or who you’re fighting,” Israel said. The largest concentration of competitive and vacant House seats may be in Central Florida. In addition to Crist, who represents St. Petersburg, two other Democratic representatives, Stephanie Murphy of Winter Park and Val Demings of Orlando, are weighing runs for statewide office. All three now hold seats in districts Biden carried handily last November, but with Republicans in control of Florida’s redistricting process, the state’s congressional map is likely to soon be much better for Republicans than it is now. Each of the districts would be exceedingly expensive for a new candidate to run in because of the high cost of media in Florida, further stretching the party’s resources in what is expected to be a difficult election cycle. “You have to assume that because Republicans get to control reapportionment that it’s not going to get any easier,” said Adam Goodman, a Florida-based Republican media strategist, who predicted that the GOP would take two of the three seats now held by Crist, Demings and Murphy. “The Crist seat — it took a Charlie Crist type of person to hold that seat in ’20. The Democrats won’t have that person this time.” Nikki Fried, Florida’s agriculture commissioner who is weighing her own run for governor, echoed that assessment as she tweaked Crist at her own news conference, which competed for attention with his campaign launch. “It’s a time when we need his voice and his vote up in Washington, D.C.,” Fried said. “His seat is one that only probably Charlie Crist can hold on to, so really would like to have encouraged him to stay in Congress.” Democratic strategists said it was hardly unusual for members of Congress to seek a promotion to statewide office. “A lot of us lived through 2009 and 2010, and we’re not seeing that level of rush to the exits that we did then,” said Ian Russell, a former official with the House Democrats’ campaign arm. “It’s not surprising that members of Congress look to run statewide, that has been happening since the founding of the republic and doesn’t indicate a bigger thing.” Republicans, optimistic about being on offense for the first time since 2014, cited potential pickup opportunities in western Pennsylvania, where Rep. Conor Lamb is weighing a run for the state’s open Senate seat; New Hampshire, where Rep. Chris Pappas may run for governor rather than seek reelection in a district likely to become more Republican; and Iowa, where Rep. Cindy Axne told The Storm Lake Times last month that her first two options for 2022 were running for Senate or governor. “House Democrats are sprinting to the exits because they know their chances of retaining the majority grow dimmer by the day,” said Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, who last year entered an alcohol rehabilitation program after falling on the Washington Metro, also chose not to seek reelection. Rep. Cheri Bustos, whose district covering a swath of Central and Northwest Illinois swung to Donald Trump, announced her retirement last week. Last year Bustos led the House Democrats’ campaign arm through a disappointing cycle, when the party lost 13 seats after it expected to flip Republican-held districts. Along with Florida, Republicans are expected to draw themselves more favorable congressional districts in Georgia, where Democrats hold two competitive districts in Atlanta’s northern suburbs, and Texas, which will add two new seats for the 2022 elections. Ryan’s Democratic district in Northeast Ohio is likely to disappear when Ohio Republicans draw a map with one fewer House seat, and Rep. Filemon Vela of Texas, whose Rio Grande Valley district became 8 percentage points more Republican from 2016 to 2020, chose retirement rather than compete in what was likely to be his first competitive reelection bid. “This is where Democratic underperformance in 2020 really begins to hinder Democrats down ballot,” said Ken Spain, a veteran of the House Republicans’ campaign arm. “Republicans fared well at the state level last cycle, and now they’re going to reap the benefits of many of those red states drawing a disproportionate number of the seats.” Because Republicans hold majorities in more state legislatures, and Democrats and voters in key states such as California, Colorado and Virginia have delegated mapmaking authority to nonpartisan commissions, the redistricting process alone could shift up to five or six seats to Republicans. That is potentially enough to seize the majority if they don't flip any other Democratic-held seats. Democrats are expected to press their advantages where they can, particularly in Illinois and New York, states that lost one House district each in last week’s reapportionment. New York’s new map is certain to take a seat from Republicans in upstate New York, and one Republican-held seat in Central Illinois may be redrawn to be Democratic while another is eliminated. For the moment there are more House Republicans, six, not seeking reelection than the five House Democrats retiring or aiming for a promotion to statewide office. But of the Republicans, only Reps. Lee Zeldin and Tom Reed of New York represent districts that are plausibly competitive in 2022. With Democrats holding supermajority control of the New York state Legislature, Zeldin, who is running for governor, and Reed, who retired while apologizing for a past allegation of groping, could both see their districts drawn to become far more competitive for Democrats. This article originally appeared in The New York Times. © 2021 The New York Times Company
news.yahoo.comBustos, who led Democrats' campaign arm, won't run again
Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois, one of the few congressional Democrats from rural America, said Friday that she will not seek reelection next year, stepping aside after playing a lead role in 2020 elections that unexpectedly saw her party nearly lose House control. Bustos, who was first elected to her largely rural district in 2012, became chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for the 2020 campaign after arguing that Democrats needed to do more to appeal to voters in the heartland who supported Donald Trump and other Republicans in 2016.
news.yahoo.comCensus figures show Illinois 1 of 3 states to see population drop in last decade, costing it one congressional seat and some clout in Washington
Illinois’ representation in the U.S. House will drop from 18 members to 17 next year, U.S. Census Bureau officials said Monday in releasing the first official numbers from the 2020 count.
chicagotribune.comCongresswoman Cheri Bustos describes Capitol riots, "mini Trump rally" on flight home afterward
Congresswoman Cheri Bustos describes Capitol riots, "mini Trump rally" on flight home afterward Illinois Congresswoman Cheri Bustos was on the House floor as a member of Democratic leadership last Wednesday when a mob of Trump supporters stormed into the Capitol. She joins CBSN's "Red & Blue" host Elaine Quijano to discuss her experience, as well as what she saw on her flight home with protesters from D.C.
cbsnews.comCongresswoman Cheri Bustos describes Capitol riots, "mini Trump rally" on flight home afterward
Congresswoman Cheri Bustos describes Capitol riots, "mini Trump rally" on flight home afterward Illinois Congresswoman Cheri Bustos was on the House floor as a member of Democratic leadership last Wednesday when a mob of Trump supporters stormed into the Capitol. She joins CBSN's "Red & Blue" host Elaine Quijano to discuss her experience, as well as what she saw on her flight home with protesters from D.C.
cbsnews.comPresident Trump addresses assault on Capitol Hill in video message
President Trump addresses assault on Capitol Hill in video message Through a pre-recorded message released on the official White House Twitter page Thursday night, President Trump condemned the violence that unfolded a day before, and said he was focusing on a smooth transition of power come January 20th. Democratic congresswoman Cheri Bustos of Illinois joined CBSN's Lana Zak to discuss the president's latest message, as well as her experience being inside the Capitol as rioters stormed the building.
cbsnews.comTrump addresses assault on Capitol Hill in video message
Trump addresses assault on Capitol Hill in video message Through a pre-recorded message released on the official White House Twitter page Thursday night, President Trump condemned the violence that unfolded a day before, and said he was focusing on a smooth transition of power come January 20. Democratic congresswoman Cheri Bustos of Illinois joins CBSN's Lana Zak to discuss the president's latest message, as well as her experience being inside the Capitol as rioters stormed the building.
cbsnews.comHouse Dems' campaign chief a moderate who wins in Trump land
The party's House majority will be as meager as 222-213 next year, the tightest partisan gap in two decades. Maloney worked on Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign and joined the White House after Clinton's 1996 reelection. “Those of us in the LGBT community have seen the system work, and it has worked because we worked,” Maloney said. In 2018 he sought the House campaign committee chairmanship but withdrew when he was hospitalized for an infection. Farrell runs a consulting firm that he says was blacklisted by the campaign committee under Bustos after it helped candidates challenging Democratic incumbents.
Florida's Sen. Scott has coronavirus, 'very mild symptoms'
Scott, 67, has been quarantining at home all week after coming into contact in Florida on Nov. 13 with someone who subsequently tested positive. Scott, a Republican, said he was “feeling good” despite the mild symptoms and would be working at his home in Naples. “I want to remind everyone to be careful and do the right things to protect yourselves and others,” Scott said in a statement. House members could be regularly tested in the Capitol starting this week, but there is still no testing protocol for senators. The absence Scott and Grassley on Tuesday helped Democrats block the nomination of Judy Shelton, Trump’s controversial pick for the Federal Reserve.
Dems nominate Pelosi as speaker again to lead into Biden era
Against that backdrop, many House Democrats have for years impatiently insisted it's time for fresh leadership. To become speaker again, Pelosi will need more votes than House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., who’s likely to garner nearly unanimous GOP support. Though she's likely to succeed, it won’t be simple because when Pelosi was elected speaker in January 2019, 15 Democrats opposed her. Pelosi came to Congress in 1987 and has led House Democrats, both as the minority and majority party, ever since 2003. Pelosi has won wide acclaim among Democrats as a leading Trump foe in battles over impeachment, immigration and health care.
Dems clinch House control, but majority likely to shrink
By retaining the House, Democrats will control the chamber for four consecutive years for only the second time since 1995, when Republicans ended 40 years of Democratic dominance. As the bad news sunk in, Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-Ill., who led House Democrats' campaign committee, announced Monday she wouldn't seek another term leading that organization. Republicans have been heartened by the House results, which many believe position them for a strong run for the majority in the 2022 elections. Illustrating that, the Blue Dog Coalition of the most conservative House Democrats, whose membership has dwindled in recent years, lost at least six of its roughly two dozen members. On the Republican side, the conservative House Freedom Caucus was hoping to grow from its roughly 30 members.
House Dem campaign chair won't seek post anew after losses
WASHINGTON – The chairwoman of House Democrats' campaign arm said Monday that she won't seek the post again for the next Congress, days after her party's unexpected loss of seats in last week's election triggered recriminations among Democrats. Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos' decision to not seek a new term atop the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee comes with party members upset and divided over why that happened. Her win came after an eleventh-hour $1 million expenditure for her by the House Majority PAC, which was resented by some Democrats. That committee is aligned with House Democratic leaders. House Democrats currently have a 232-197 advantage, plus one independent and five vacancies.
Dems head toward House control, but GOP picks off seats
“They were all wrong," House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., told reporters about Democrats' assumptions of adding to their House numbers. She declared that Democrats had won the House majority, which seemed highly likely but hadn’t been officially determined by The Associated Press. Democrats lost a majority Hispanic district in West Texas they expected to win after the GOP incumbent retired. In a district between Austin and San Antonio, freshman GOP Rep. Chip Roy withstood a challenge from Democrat Wendy Davis. Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and the three other members of the so-called squad of young progressive women of color were easily reelected.
Democrats push to extend control of House for two more years
Democrats control the House 232-197, with five open seats and one independent. In contrast, of the 53 Democratic seats that Republican leaders named as takeover targets, Democrats raised more money in 49 races. “We are playing deep into Trump country," Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-Ill., who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Democrats' campaign organ, told reporters recently. But Democratic counterparts like Bustos' group and the House Majority PAC responded in kind, often leaving such spending closely matched. Should Democrats retain the House majority, it would mark only the second time in a quarter century that they've controlled the chamber for two consecutive two-year Congresses.
House already won? Pelosi thinks so, and reaches for more
In this Oct. 22, 2020, photo, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)WASHINGTON – Speaker Nancy Pelosi once predicted she’d have the 2020 House Democratic majority secured by November — of 2019. Pelosi said she feels so confident Democrats will keep the House this election, she’s already preparing to win the next one in 2022. Pelosi rose as the face of party, the House impeached the president and emboldened Democrats are on the march to pick up House seats deep into Trump country. Pelosi notes experts have suggested Democrats will pick up between five and 15 House seats.
Law and order vs. health care as Dems, GOP vie for suburbs
In the Republican-leaning California 48th Congressional District in Orange County, Republican challenger Michelle Steel has talked about taxes, while Rouda has focused on health care and prescription drug costs. The pattern is similar outside Philadelphia, where GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick accuses Democratic challenger Christina Finelo of supporting police defunding. Wagner has voted for bills that would have ended the coverage that former President Barack Obama’s health care law guarantees people with preexisting conditions. Freitas has said he thinks government intrusion into health care doesn't help. Democrats have run health care themed ads against Republicans in numerous states including Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska and Texas.
House Dems seek to hold suburbs as Trump's slide worries GOP
Democrats boast an ever-expanding target list that includes a half-dozen Republican seats in Texas plus others outside Atlanta, Cincinnati, Los Angeles and Phoenix. The tale of two districts 1,600 miles apart spotlights that many pivotal House races hinge on suburban voters. We're still on offense, said Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-Ill., who leads House Democrats' campaign organization. Since January 2019, all 29 Democrats in House districts Trump carried in 2016 have banked more money than their GOP challengers, usually by multiples. The same is true for all but two of the 24 other Democrats in seats Republicans said they'd pursue aggressively this year.
Democrats renew health care attacks on GOP as virus builds
The health care law has been a flashpoint in American politics since its enactment a decade ago. Trying to take away health care in the middle of a pandemic is like throwing out the sandbags during a hurricane, said Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic strategist. The pandemic has made clear for people how important it is to them that their neighbors have health care. And in March, it put $250,000 behind an ad attacking Republican Sen. Steve Daines of Montana on health care. She said the Democratic health care message would be, Democrats are the party of health care.
Democrats renew health care attacks on GOP as virus builds
The health care law has been a flashpoint in American politics since its enactment a decade ago. Trying to take away health care in the middle of a pandemic is like throwing out the sandbags during a hurricane, said Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic strategist. The pandemic has made clear for people how important it is to them that their neighbors have health care. And in March, it put $250,000 behind an ad attacking Republican Sen. Steve Daines of Montana on health care. She said the Democratic health care message would be, Democrats are the party of health care.
With a jab at Trump, Pelosi unveils new 'Obamacare' bill
On Thursday, the Trump administration is expected to file papers with the Supreme Court arguing that the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional. Trying to overturn a health insurance expansion providing coverage to about 20 million people was wrong any time, Pelosi said. It would financially squeeze some states that have refused to expand Medicaid under the health law. Democrats won control of the House in 2018 on their defense of the health care law. Republicans at all levels own this lawsuits attack on Americans health care, said the memo.
Virus, economy, Trump and cash hamper GOP's bid for House
Citing its direct payments for immigrant workers in the U.S. illegally and other asinine provisions, the House Republican campaign arm all but promised attack ads. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll this month found 61% of suburban voters disapprove of Trump, little changed over three years. Garcia represents a nod toward diversity for the overwhelmingly white House GOP. Republicans have sought more female candidates, too, hoping to improve an embarrassing look: Just 13 of the 198 House Republicans are women, and two are retiring. All 53 remaining House Democrats in seats the GOP targeted last year, mostly from Trump-won districts and freshmen, have outraised their Republican challengers.
Racial diversity dispute spurs shakeup at House Democratic campaign arm
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The congresswoman who heads the campaign arm for U.S. House of Representatives Democrats has acknowledged mistakes after lawmakers complained about a lack of racial diversity within the organization, and she named a Cuban-American as interim executive director as part of a major staff shakeup. Politico reported last week that black and Hispanic lawmakers had complained that the DCCC was not recruiting or retaining non-white staffers in top positions. Allison Jaslow, an Iraq war veteran and long-time Bustos ally, resigned as DCCC executive director on Monday. In addition, several Republicans have announced in recent weeks that they are retiring from the House. Representative Linda Sanchez, a former chairwoman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said she was confident Bustos was working to bring diverse, talented perspectives to the DCCC.
feeds.reuters.com