ROANOKE, Va. – You could feel the air changing throughout the day Monday, as more moisture was pumped into the region.
This, in combination with a weak boundary near us, will set off some pop-up downpours after about 1 or 2 p.m. Tuesday. Most of these will stay west of US-29 (Danville Expressway). They’ll move pretty slowly, so very localized flooding may become possible Tuesday afternoon.
Even after sunset, a downpour or two cannot be ruled out.
Heading into Wednesday, the humidity increases even more. This will make things uncomfortable at times, but it will also provide the fuel for more showers and storms during the afternoon and evening.
A few stronger thunderstorms will be possible any time Wednesday afternoon and evening, which is why the Storm Prediction Center has use in a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather. Main threats would be localized wind damage, small hail and/or flooding.
A cold front to the west will produce a line of showers and storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning that may weaken. This front slows, allowing humidity and storm chances to linger in areas east of the Blue Ridge Parkway Thursday afternoon.
Once that front passes east, we’re on our way to a pretty pleasant Friday and Saturday. High pressure to the north will reinforce some more tolerable humidity levels.
As that area of high pressure moves east toward New England, the air will then go up the Appalachian Mountains. This puts us under “the wedge,” which means cooler air and the chance for intermittent showers Sunday through perhaps next Tuesday.
We’ll likely only get into the 70s each day, with lows each night in the 50s. That’s considered “below average” for this time of year, and is reflected in the Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlook for that time frame.
It’s likely that this pattern buckles the closer we get to Father’s Day, which means we’ll see more warmth and humidity build back into the region (status quo for this time of year).