‘The wedge’ keeps clouds around; most rain comes Saturday

Rain Saturday could result in localized flooding

Cold air damming setup for Thursday through Saturday

ROANOKE, Va. – High pressure to the north and low pressure to the south is usually a combination that results in wintry weather...in the winter. In early October, it’s a recipe for more clouds and periods of rain.

Showers Thursday morning are mostly targeting the New River Valley and Mountain Empire. High temperatures, because of a mostly cloudy sky and breeze from the east, will be in the 60s and 70s Thursday afternoon.

High temperature forecast for Thursday, 10/7/2021

During the day, our main storm system passes off some energy to a weaker system offshore. That energy transfer results in lower rain chances through Thursday.

FutureTracker - Thursday afternoon

By Friday, our system gets a little closer to us. ‘The wedge’ keeps us locked in the clouds with some patches of mist and drizzle prior to more showers developing during the evening and at night.

FutureTracker - Friday afternoon

While it may not be pouring at your high school football game, have the umbrella or raincoat around in case of some patches of drizzle.

Forecast for high school football - 10/8/2021

The most rain we see comes Saturday, as our storm system digs into the Atlantic and pulls more moisture our way.

Upper air pattern for Saturday afternoon

This is when we could see some pockets of heavy rain and the possibility of localized flooding. Most of the area sees 0.5-1.5″ of rain Saturday, but there will be some isolated pockets of higher totals.

Weather impacts through Saturday, 10/9/2021

Most of the tangible rain is over in time for the Tech vs. Notre Dame game, though tailgating will be quite wet. Some drizzle could be leftover during gametime.

Forecast for Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame

Once this pattern passes, we gradually pull a 180° next week. The jet stream retreats to the north, allowing unseasonable warmth to build back into the Eastern U.S.

Upper air pattern by Tuesday, 10/12/2021

Some of us will be in the low to mid 80s again by Tuesday and Wednesday.


About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.