October feel arrives after Monday; Ian to at least bring rain our way

Much of this week will get us in the fall spirit prior to remnant rain from Ian

ROANOKE, Va. – Following a front that brought showers and storms Sunday, Monday will be dry.

We’ll be breezy at times with gusts in excess of 20 mph, but we’ll also see some fair-weather cumulus clouds. Temperatures peak in the 60s and 70s across the board.

High temperature forecast for Monday, 9/26/2022

A fall breeze will persist Tuesday and Wednesday, though it will bring in some cooler air each day.

Wind gust forecast through Wednesday, 9/28/2022

Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings will drop down well into the 40s.

Morning low temperatures through Saturday, 10/1/2022

Meanwhile, we’ll keep track of Ian and its progress toward Florida.

Landfall is going to happen later this week somewhere along Florida’s Gulf Coast - most likely north of Tampa.

Its track beyond that is crucial to our forecast late Friday into the weekend. A path closer to the Appalachians puts us in line for more rain, whereas a path a little farther east would lessen the amount of rain we see.

Possible paths for Ian late week into the weekend

As it stands, forecast models show nothing guiding the remnants of Ian away. It’s likely that we (at the very least) see off and on showery weather Friday evening through Sunday.

We’ve gone through a bit of a dry spell, so widespread flooding doesn’t appear to be a concern at the moment. However, localized flooding can’t be ruled out when working with tropical moisture. (Forecast models often undersell it too.)

Lastly, our severe weather potential is contingent on the storm’s path too. We’ll be under the influence of a cool air wedge, which could diminish our severe threat.

Any westward shift in the storm would pull in warmer surface air, allowing the chance for rotating storms east of the Parkway Saturday.

Potential impacts here at home from Ian

It’s in your best interest to check back for updates on the forecast, as any subtle change in the track will impact the end result for us. Download our weather app for the latest forecast updates and alerts.

About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.