Pension funds have to buy bonds to rebalance portfolios, and that might be good for stocks
Pension funds and other major investors should be big buyers of bonds during the next week or so, as they rebalance their holdings to make up for the bond market's first quarter sell-off. That could send bond yields lower, at least temporarily. Wells Fargo's Michael Schumacher estimates corporate pension funds will have to make up a gap in bond holdings of about $125 billion, the biggest shortfall in about a decade. Normally, stocks would be under selling pressure as big investors rebalance by also reducing holdings because of the stock market's positive performance. As yields slipped Monday, stocks rallied, especially the Nasdaq which has been hurt most by rising yields.cnbc.com
The Fed could be a source of market volatility as Powell and others speak in the week ahead
In the approaching week, bond market professionals will be watching Powell and other member of the Fed for further cues. "Clearly the bond market is the one the equity market is watching right now, and normally that's not the case." Other central bank speakers this week include Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, Vice Chairman Randal Quarles, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, and New York Fed President John Williams. "They will be explaining themselves as economists, and they'll be speaking a different language than the bond market speaks." Bond market directionSchumacher said there's a chance the bond market could steady in the next couple of weeks, even if yields tick up.cnbc.com
As Fed gets ready to deliver its interest rate decision, Wells Fargo predicts the 10-year yield could reach 2.25% this year
Don't rule out a 10-year Treasury Note yield as high as 2.25% this year. That's the message from Wells Fargo Securities' Michael Schumacher, ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. In December on "Trading Nation," Schumacher predicted Covid-19 vaccines would dramatically boost confidence and lift Treasury yields in 2021. So far this year, the benchmark 10-year yield is up 77%. "Yields began this year — if you focus on the 10-year Treasury — just north of 90 basis points.cnbc.com
Speedy Sir: Lewis Hamilton knighted in year-end royal honors
Hamilton is now a Sir as well as a seven-time Formula One champion after being knighted Wednesday, Dec. 30 in Queen Elizabeth IIs New Year honors list. (Giuseppe Cacace, Pool via AP, File)LONDON – Lewis Hamilton is now a “Sir” as well as a seven-time Formula One champion. Supporters have suggested Hamilton would have been knighted sooner if not for his tax status. In descending order, the main honors are knighthoods, CBE, OBE and Member of the Order of the British Empire, or MBE. There is growing criticism of the honors’ evocation of the British Empire, the legacy of which has been debated anew amid campaigns against racism and colonialism around the world.
Vaccines will 'boost confidence dramatically' and lift Treasury yields in 2021, Wells Fargo predicts
Michael Schumacher, the firm's head of macro strategy, expects the 10-year and 30-year Treasury Note yields to move meaningfully higher due to progress against the coronavirus. We can deal with another 20, 30, 40 basis points, whatever might be in the 10-year yield,'" he said. About a month later, during overnight trading on March 9, the 10-year Treasury yield plunged to an all-time low of 0.318%. Now Schumacher's base case has the benchmark 10-year yield between 1.15% to 1.35% by 2021's halfway point. "If everything were to line up really perfectly, economically and in terms of vaccine, maybe yields go up to 1.50%," Schumacher said.cnbc.com
Hamilton clinches record 7th F1 title with win at Turkish GP
Hamilton now stands alongside F1 great Michael Schumacher on seven titles, having replaced the German driver at Mercedes in 2013. Vettel and Hamilton pitted for new tires on Lap 9, followed by Stroll, Perez and Verstappen three laps later. At the restart Hamilton tried to overtake Vettel but locked his tires, while Albon passed Hamilton and Vettel to move into fourth spot. Halfway through the race, Stroll and Perez were ahead of Hamilton but losing ground. Stroll came in for new tires on Lap 37 and Hamilton used DRS to get past Perez one lap later and take the lead.
Hamilton wins Emilia Romagna Grand Prix for 93rd F1 win
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain holds up the trophy on the podium after winning the Emilia Romagna Formula One Grand Prix, at the Enzo and Dino Ferrari racetrack, in Imola, Italy, Sunday, Nov.1, 2020. (Miguel Medina, Pool via AP)IMOLA – Runaway championship leader Lewis Hamilton overcame a sluggish start to win the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix on Sunday for a record-extending 93rd Formula One victory. The safety car remained on the track following another crash as George Russell lost control and slammed into the track barriers. This gave Bottas a chance to pressure Hamilton with six laps left, but Hamilton got away cleanly after the re-start and clocked fastest laps on his way to another comfortable win. “It was an exhausting race, the speed we were having to go after a poor start," Hamilton said.
Brace for a ‘fairly scary time' on Wall Street, Wells Fargo warns
Wells Fargo Securities' Michael Schumacher has a message for investors: Buckle up. The firm's head of macro strategy warns Wednesday's market turbulence may just be a preview of what's ahead. While jitters over rising virus cases drove the latest sell-off, Schumacher warns election uncertainty has the potential to pummel stocks even more. "One thing we pointed to for a while at Wells Fargo is the chance the election results are delayed. Besides the impact on stocks, the worsening pandemic and election uncertainty have also been putting pressure on U.S. Treasury yields.cnbc.com
Still rising: Lewis Hamilton makes F1 history with 92nd win
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain celebrates after winning the Formula One Portuguese Grand Prix at the Algarve International Circuit in Portimao, Portugal, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020. Observers questioned the move and in 2013 Hamilton won only one race while Vettel finished the season with 13. Hamilton was dominant in 2015, sealing his third F1 title at the U.S. Grand Prix with three races to spare. 2, Hamilton won the next two championships in 2017 and 2018 as Vettel blew midseason leads for Ferrari. Last year's title was emphatic as Hamilton won 11 races compared to three for Bottas, finishing 87 points clear of him.
Lewis Hamilton wins Portuguese GP for record 92nd F1 victory
(Jorge Guerrero, Pool via AP)PORTIMAO – British driver Lewis Hamilton made Formula One history on Sunday, winning the Portuguese Grand Prix for a 92nd career victory to move one ahead of German great Michael Schumacher. Hamilton added five more F1 titles and the runaway championship leader is now set to equal Schumacher’s record of seven. Hamilton took a record-extending 97th career pole position, starting ahead of Bottas and Verstappen on a track being used for the first time in F1. McLaren's Carlos Sainz Jr. briefly held the race lead and then Bottas led until Hamilton passed him on Lap 20. Kimi Raikkonen went from 16th to sixth with some typically daring moves but the 41-year-old Finn started to drift back while, up ahead, Bottas led until Hamilton overtook him.
Hamilton wins his 91st F1 race to match Schumacher's record
Hamilton gets the helmet as a gift from Michael Schumacher's son Mick because he equals Schumacher's record of 91 wins in the Formula One. (Bryn Lennon, Pool via AP)NÜRBURG – NÜEven Lewis Hamilton once saw Michael Schumacher's record of 91 wins in Formula One as unbeatable. Hamilton took a big step closer to matching Schumacher's record of seven titles too after his teammate Valtteri Bottas failed to finish with an engine problem. Hamilton started faster than Bottas and had the inside line into the hairpin bend at turn one. After Hamilton matched Schumacher’s record in front of a German crowd at a track where Schumacher won five times, he can surpass it on a track where F1 has never raced before.
Hamilton chases F1 record again as Schumacher's son debuts
Officially, the German Grand Prix is on hiatus this year, and this race — a late replacement on the coronavirus-affected calendar — is called the Eifel Grand Prix after a nearby mountain range. As many as 20,000 fans could attend, making it the best attended race of the season apart from the Russian Grand Prix. NEW GENERATIONIt's been eight years since Michael Schumacher's last F1 race, and now his son will officially be part of an F1 race weekend for the first time. Michael Schumacher hit his head on a rock and sustained severe brain injuries which left him requiring constant care. When Hamilton and Michael Schumacher last raced together at the Nürburgring in 2011, there were six Germans on the grid including then-world champion Sebastian Vettel.
Bottas wins in Russia as Hamilton misses F1 win record
Hamilton's Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas cruised to the win Sunday after Hamilton, who was leading, was penalized 10 seconds for practicing his starts in the wrong place before the race. Hamilton came into the race looking to match Michael Schumacher’s record of 91 wins in Formula One but had to settle for third behind Bottas and Max Verstappen. Bottas built a sizeable lead over Verstappen with ease and eased to his first win since the season-opening Austrian Grand Prix. Hamilton had asked Mercedes over the radio if he could perform the starts at the pit exit, and was told he could. Albon has finished behind his teammate Verstappen every time they have both completed a race this season.
Market volatility expected to continue in the week ahead with Presidential debate and jobs report
Brendan McDermid | ReutersStock market volatility, with sharp ups, downs and reversals, is likely to be the norm again in the week ahead, as investors await Friday's jobs report and watch headlines from Washington and the presidential debate. Stocks were very volatile in the past week, but the S&P 500 ended the week at 3,298, down just 0.6% for the week. JP Morgan economists said they expect job growth to continue, but they also said the lack of stimulus and aid to the unemployed could slow consumer spending. Election watchMichael Schumacher, director of rate strategy at Wells Fargo, said the debate may have more potential to move the market than the jobs report. Besides the jobs report, there is ISM and PMI manufacturing data Thursday.cnbc.com
Hamilton wins hectic Tuscan GP, demands justice for Taylor
Taylor was a Black emergency medical worker fatally shot by police serving a narcotics search warrant in her home on March 13. “Justice for Breonna Taylor,” Hamilton said during his interview after winning. The first F1 race on a Mugello track with super-fast corners usually used by MotoGP riders was incident-packed. Ferrari reverted back to an age-old burgundy livery for its 1,000th F1 race, reflecting the color first used by the famed Italian manufacturer. Verstappen, meanwhile, was angry with his team after a second straight retirement following the Italian GP last weekend, where Gasly won his first F1 race.
Bottas fastest in final practice at Tuscan GP, Hamilton 3rd
Mercedes driver Valtteri Bottas of Finland steers his car during the third practice session ahead of the Grand Prix of Tuscany, at the Mugello circuit in Scarperia, Italy, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020. The Formula One Grand Prix of Tuscany will take place on Sunday. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno, Pool)MUGELLO – Mercedes driver Valtteri Bottas completed a sweep at the Tuscan Grand Prix when he posted the fastest time in third and final practice ahead of qualifying later Saturday. But Bottas test drove here with Williams back in 2012 and so far has looked more assured than Hamilton, who hasn't driven here before. Hamilton looked set to beat Bottas when he led on the first time split, only to fall back in the second and third sectors.
Hamilton sets fastest lap in F1 history to take Monza pole
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain celebrates after clocking the fastest time during the qualifying session for Sunday's Italian Formula One Grand Prix, at the Monza racetrack in Monza, Italy, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020. (Jennifer Lorenzini/Pool via AP)Lewis Hamilton set the fastest Formula One lap ever to grab pole position at the Italian Grand Prix, nudging Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas into second place by just 0.069 seconds on Saturday. Defending champion Hamilton raced around the 3.54 miles (5.79 kilometers) of asphalt at the so-called Temple of Speed in the fastest lap recorded in the sport at 164.267 mph (264.362 kph). That eclipsed Kimi Raikkonens one-lap record of 163.785 mph, set by the former world champion on his way to pole at Monza two years ago. But its a reality at the moment for us unfortunately.Vettel finished 17th after being hampered by traffic on his final lap.
Hamilton wins Belgian GP, now 2 behind Schumacher's record
Race winner Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain, right, speaks with second placed Mercedes driver Valtteri Bottas of Finland after the Formula One Grand Prix at the Spa-Francorchamps racetrack in Spa, Belgium, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2020. (Stephanie Lecocq, Pool via AP)SPA-FRANCORCHAMPS SPA-Lewis Hamilton led from start to finish at the Belgian Grand Prix to clinch his 89th career win and move two behind Michael Schumacher's Formula One record on Sunday. I can imagine its definitely not the most exciting (race), Hamilton said. Hamilton is favorite to win a seventh title to tie Schumacher's record. When Hamilton crossed the line, the forest was eerily silent and the only sound was his engine.
Lewis Hamilton wins Spanish GP for 88th career victory in F1
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain leads the pack out of the 1st curve during the Formula One Grand Prix at the Barcelona Catalunya racetrack in Montmelo, Spain, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2020. The talk before the race was whether Mercedes' tires would be vulnerable in the searing summer heat of Spain, after experiencing problems in the past two races at Silverstone. After narrowly securing a record-extending 92nd career pole position Hamilton made a strong start on the long straight to the first corner. Track temperatures on the circuit were around 50 degrees C (122 F) and Mercedes was concerned about catching too much sun. These black overalls are hot, Bottas said during the race, throwing in an expletive for emphasis.
Hamilton wins British GP to close in on Schumacher's record
When I heard his (Bottas' tire) went I looked at mine and it seemed fine.Charles Leclerc finished third for Ferrari with Daniel Ricciardo fourth for improving Renault and British driver Lando Norris fifth for McLaren. Hamilton set a track record and secured a record-extending 91st career pole and a record seventh at Silverstone on Saturday. Bottas qualified second ahead of Verstappen, who was racing in his 106th GP to equal his father Jos Verstappen's tally. Halfway through the race, Hamilton led Bottas by about two seconds and the British driver extended his lead comfortably as another Mercedes 1-2 finish looked certain. As he was last season, Verstappen looks the only driver capable of genuinely challenging Hamilton.
Hamilton takes pole position for British GP ahead of Bottas
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain celebrates after he clocked the fastest time during the qualifying session for the British Formula One Grand Prix at the Silverstone racetrack, Silverstone, England, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2020. (Will Oliver/Poolvia AP)SILVERSTONE Lewis Hamilton set a new track record at the British Grand Prix and clinched a record-extending 91st pole position on Saturday. He was .313 seconds ahead of Bottas and about 1 second faster than Red Bull's Max Verstappen. Earlier, Bottas posted the fastest time in third and final practice ahead of Hamilton and Verstappen in somewhat cooler conditions following Fridays stifling heat. We definitely miss the fans.Mercedes won the first three races, Bottas clinching the season-opener in Austria and Hamilton winning the next two in Austria and Hungary.
Stroll quickest at 2nd British GP practice; Vettel struggles
Racing Point driver Lance Stroll of Canada steers his car during the second practice session for the British Formula One Grand Prix at the Silverstone circuit in Silverstone, England, Friday, July 31, 2020. (Bryn Lennon/Pool via AP)SILVERSTONE Lance Stroll led the second practice for the British Grand Prix on Friday while struggling Ferrari had another bad day, with Sebastian Vettel spending most of it stuck in the team garage. Stroll finished fourth at the Hungarian GP two weeks ago for Racing Point, which uses Mercedes engines and has been showing good pace this season. There's a lot of heat coming from the cockpit, the championship leader Hamilton said right at the end of a session held amid hot and humid conditions. The second session was interrupted half way through when Albon span off the track and slammed backward into the crash barrier.
F1's pandemic pause spurs Hamilton to race on for 2-3 years
The coronavirus has hit the Silverstone race with Sergio Perez forced out after testing positive on Thursday. After dominating the Hungarian Grand Prix earlier this month, Hamilton then accused Grand Prix Drivers Association director Romain Grosjean of failing to convince the grid to be united in kneeling before the race. But he also apologized to Hamilton for indicating that it might have been the wrong call. Romain originally reached out to me and we had a great conversation, added Hamilton. Red Bulls Max Verstappen and Ferraris Charles Leclerc are among those drivers who have stood rather than taking a knee.
Hamilton wins 8th Hungarian GP to equal Schumacher F1 record
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain steers his car during the Hungarian Formula One Grand Prix race at the Hungaroring racetrack in Mogyorod, Hungary, Sunday, July 19, 2020. (Leonhard Foeger/Pool via AP)BUDAPEST Formula One champion Lewis Hamilton won the Hungarian Grand Prix for the eighth time to equal Michael Schumacher's single-venue record and take the championship lead on Sunday. Hamilton's latest victory from pole position was as comfortable as the nearly 9-second margin over second-place Max Verstappen suggested. The British driver's 86th GP win moved him just five behind the German great Schumacher's F1 record of 91. Hamilton took a record-extending 90th career pole on Saturday to match Schumacher's record for seven poles on the 4.4-kilometer (2.7-mile) track nestled among rolling hills outside of Budapest.
Hamilton takes Hungarian GP pole position ahead of Bottas
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain reacts after winning the qualifying for the Hungarian Formula One Grand Prix at the Hungaroring racetrack in Mogyorod, Hungary, Saturday, July 18, 2020. The Hungarian F1 Grand Prix will be held on Sunday. (Mark Thompson/Pool via AP)BUDAPEST Formula One champion Lewis Hamilton beat Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas on Saturday to take pole position for the seventh time at the Hungarian Grand Prix. Earlier, Bottas led Hamilton by .042 seconds in overcast conditions for the third and final practice. Bottas won the season-opening Austrian GP and six-time F1 champion Hamilton clinched the Styrian GP the following week in Austria after a brilliant pole position in teeming rain.
Hamilton wins Styrian GP ahead of Mercedes teammate Bottas
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain steers his car during the Styrian Formula One Grand Prix race at the Red Bull Ring racetrack in Spielberg, Austria, Sunday, July 12, 2020. (Mark Thompson/Pool via AP)SPIELBERG Lewis Hamilton won the Styrian Grand Prix from pole position on Sunday to clinch an 85th career win and move within six of Michael Schumacher's Formula One record. Most of Schumacher's wins were during a dominant spell with Ferrari, but his old team is struggling badly. For the second time in the past four races, Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel crashed into each other and went out. Bottas won last weekend's season-opening Austrian GP on the same Red Bull Ring track in Spielberg at the foot of the Styrian mountains hence the name change.
Harvick takes advantage of Hamlin's crash to win Brickyard
INDIANAPOLIS Kevin Harvick turned up the heat on Denny Hamlin late in the Brickyard 400. It's the Brickyard, this is what I grew up wanting to do so to come here and win for the third time is something I couldn't have dreamed up." For the third straight race, Harvick and Hamlin were in a league of their own. And since racing resumed at Darlington in mid-May, Hamlin and Harvick have combined to win seven of 12 races. But the crash ended Hamlin's run of four straight top-five finishes with Joe Gibbs Racing.
NASCAR races on at Indy after Johnson contracts coronavirus
Seven-time NASCAR champion Jimmie Johnson will miss what was supposed to be his final Brickyard 400 as he quarantines following the Friday test result. Johnson said he was disappointed and worried about the emotional impact of the positive tests on his young children. Johnson also spent a day this week in Dallara's simulator as preparation for a now-postponed Indy car test. With both races on network, we do hope fans will tune in and get to see really great racing," Penske said. And then there is Keselowski, the first Team Penske driver to give the boss a Cup Series win at his favorite race track.
Jimmie Johnson 1st NASCAR driver to test positive for virus
FILE - In this May 16, 2019, file photo, NASCAR driver Jimmie Johnson, center, talks with Will Power, left, of Australia, and Josef Newgarden during practice for the Indianapolis 500 IndyCar auto race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indianapolis. NASCAR seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson will test an Indy car next week on the road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Johnson earlier Friday held a Zoom session with reporters to discuss Sunday's race and an upcoming test of an Indy car on the road course at the fabled venue. Although Stewart-Haas Racing and Team Penske both said they've had positive tests from shop-based team members, Johnson is the first driver. Johnson earlier Friday discussed the Indy car test scheduled with Chip Ganassi Racing, which he said was the first step in determine if actual races are in his future.
Formula 1 season starts 4 months later in a different world
Four months after the opening race was called off amid last-minute pandemonium the Formula One season finally gets underway this weekend in Austria. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft, File)SPIELBERG Four months after the opening race was called off at the last minute, the Formula One season finally gets underway this weekend on another continent and in a different-looking world. It is so important that we seize this moment, said Hamilton, the only Black driver to become F1 champion. F1 still hopes to rearrange some of the postponed races in order to finish the season with 15-18 of the scheduled 22. The 22-year-old Verstappen showed last season that he is closing the gap to Hamilton in terms of wheel-to-wheel driving.
The government is bringing back a bond from the 1980s to help pay off a record deficit
The U.S. government is moving faster than expected to stretch out the time over which it will pay down its record deficit, strategists say. As part of that plan, the Treasury is bringing back the 20-year bond, last issued in 1986. Obviously, we haven't seen one in a little bit of time. There's always is a little bit of uncertainty around the unknown in general," said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. Yields move opposite price, and its yield is about 50 basis points above the 10-year, at 0.69% Wednesday.cnbc.com
April's jobs report showing millions out of work looms large in the week ahead
The unemployment rate is expected to jump from 4.4% to over 16.1% in April, the highest level since 1939, according to Dow Jones. I think they think the unemployment rate is going to rise through the summer," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont. "I think the unemployment rate probably peaks in May." Stanley said he expects the unemployment rate to be a better-than-consensus 11.6% in April before it rises again in May. Economists say with such big unprecedented numbers, it is difficult to predict the unemployment rate since some people may have been temporarily unemployed and expect to return to work.cnbc.com
Ten-year Treasury yields will stage a sustainable run above 1%, Wells Fargo predicts
Wells Fargo Securities believes 10-year Treasury yields are on the verge of a sustainable run above 1%. Michael Schumacher, the firm's chief macro strategist, expects improving economic conditions will push Treasury yields higher and prices lower. He sees the 10-year yield within the next three weeks trading around 0.80%, a 21% bump from current levels. By summer, Schumacher predicts yields could make a comeback above one percent. His year-end target on the 10-year yield is 1.25%, which assumes there will be no second wave of virus cases.cnbc.com
If coronavirus fears escalate, Wells Fargo warns 10-year Treasury yields could fall another 30%
The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is already down 22% so far this year. On Friday, the 10-year yield hit a low of 1.50% its lowest level since early September. If the coronavirus situation continues to deteriorate, Schumacher warns 10-year yields could fall at least another 30%. If stocks continue to get hammered, Schumacher expects it to put Treasury yields under more pressure. "For every one percent move in the S&P, it's worth four basis points maybe in the 10-year," Schumacher said.cnbc.com
Treasury brings back the 20-year bond to pay for the ballooning deficit
The Treasury Department is issuing a 20-year bond for the first time in 34 years to help pay for the ballooning $1 trillion dollar budget deficit. On Friday, news of the 20-year triggered a so-called "steepening" trade where Treasury yields on the long end of the curve rose, like 10-year and 30-year yields, and shorter duration yields, like the 2-year, fell. Strategists say investors were betting the new 20-year will help drive rates higher at the long end of the Treasury curve. "At that time, we had been strong advocates for a 20-year issue, and had even penciled one into our baseline forecasts. "We really need to lock in low yields long term but 20-years was the compromise."cnbc.com
Don't count out a 2020 rate hike: Wells Fargo's Michael Schumacher
If jobs market strength persists, Wells Fargo Securities Michael Schumacher isn't ruling out a 2020 interest rate hike especially if the Federal Reserve decides to add one more insurance cut early next year. Right now, the fed funds futures market is placing a fraction of one percent chance the Fed will raise rates next year. It's pretty darn good," said Schumacher. And, the view from our economics team is pretty simple," Schumacher said. "The U.S. economy is in a pretty good spot."cnbc.com
Interest rates suddenly entered a new phase and they are moving higher thanks to possible trade deal
As a possible trade deal gets closer, investors are less fearful of a recession and interest rates are in a new trend higher. "The one thing in Washington that's affecting markets, and the only thing, is the trade deal," said Andrew Brenner of National Alliance. ... How quickly you resumed higher rates and how quickly the curve is steepening out tells me the trend is changing, and we're moving to a very large trend higher in interest rates." "I think a lot of this is optimism over the trade deal possibly getting done. The 10-year yield hit its high for the year in January at near 2.80%, falling to its low in September.cnbc.com
The bond market may do something unusual for this time of year
Wells Fargo Securities' Michael Schumacher sees year-end bond market volume dropping off earlier than usual. According to the firm's global head of rate strategy, the slide will likely occur around Thanksgiving instead of mid-December. Not only is Wall Street still thinking about last year's painful historic stock market drop, Schumacher blames the geopolitical backdrop. He contends it's putting bond investors on edge. "Why should I take a lot of risk around year-end when I can't really get a grip on some of these things?"cnbc.com
The bond market's roller coaster ride could continue until there's a clear signal either way on recession
Strategists said it appears the Bank of Japan will buy fewer longer duration bonds in its quantitative easing program, and that could pressure rates higher. But then in the U.S., ISM manufacturing fell to 47.8% in September, its second month of contraction, and the lowest since June 2009. Schumacher said Tuesday was the 22nd day in 2019 with a 10 basis point or more move in the 10-year yield. That was the year of the presidential election, but also the Brexit vote, after which the 10-year yield fell as low as 1.32%. Wells Fargo expects the 10-year to be at 1.70% at the end of the year, while Bank of America sees a 1.25% 10-year yield.cnbc.com