‘The wedge’ to suppress warmth to the south; pair of storm systems to track later

February starts off cold and with a pair of storm systems to track through the weekend

ROANOKE, Va. – The coldest January since 2018 is over, and February is picking up right where it left off.

Tuesday starts in the 20s. The combination of high pressure over New England and low pressure to its south will wedge us in with more cloud cover at times Tuesday, keeping a lid on temperatures.

Highs mostly reach the low to mid 40s during the afternoon Tuesday.

High temperatures for Tuesday, February 1, 2022

The wedge tries to loosen up a bit Wednesday, affording temperatures the opportunity to rise a bit more.

As a warm front lifts north, moisture overruns that and gives us the chance for some showers at times late Wednesday night and Thursday. The bulk of our rain comes in as a cold front moves in from the west early Friday.

What we're tracking by Friday, 2/4/2022

Temperatures rise into the 50s (60s Southside) Thursday evening into Friday morning before falling the rest of the day Friday.

It’s possible that temperatures fall enough for some freezing rain on the back end of the storm Friday evening. Any chance of that would be farther north.

This front stalls east, and provides a boundary for perhaps another storm system Sunday. If this were to form, it would become wintry. That’s about the extent of what we know five days out.

What we're tracking by Sunday, 2/6/2022

A few pieces need to come together, and the forecast data is struggling with how they’ll do that.

You know the drill by this point. The closer we get, the more we know. Stay with us for updates!

The pattern through next week has the chance to turn active for a day or two. The reason for this is a positive phase in the Pacific-North American oscillation.

Pacific-North American Oscillation and its impact at home

This is where a ridge of high pressure sets up over the western U.S., which favors a cold and more active storm track in the Eastern U.S.

About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.