ROANOKE, Va. – Sunday Afternoon Update
The Weather Authority Alert Day has been cleared.
Sunday Morning Update.
It’s already bitterly cold out there with temperatures in the single digits in the NRV and Highlands, and the teens from Roanoke into Lynchburg.
Winds could get quite gusty, possibly as high as 50 MPH in the most extreme cases.
Those wind chills are going to be bitterly cold today, so stay inside if you can! If not, be sure to bundle up.
Thankfully, warmer temperatures this week are on the way. I say that slightly sarcastic, as they’ll still be in the 30s and low 40s. Snow and ice will begin to melt, but with lows in the 20s, it’ll refreeze quite easily.
Saturday Evening Update
Ahhhh the fun of winter weather forecasting (not).
We’re currently watching areas in southside get some pretty impressive snowfall totals. The low pressure system off the North Carolina cost is moving VERY slowly, hence why we are still seeing accumulating snow.
We had a break in the afternoon from the snowfall due to dry air in the upper atmosphere. There was snow showing on radar, but it wasn’t reaching the ground due to this dry arctic airmass.
Another dry slot formed right over Raleigh and down into Wilmington. However with the northward track of this storm, I anticipate that dry slot closing over the next few hours.
As for us, expect snowfall south of Roanoke for most of the night. That dry air has subsided to the north, meaning more moisture in the upper atmosphere allows snow to fall over southside, the NRV, and Roanoke. There’s still some dry air over Halifax... but I anticipate that also moving north, giving way to some snow later tonight.
As for tomorrow, the snow will wrap up in the overnight hours for us, but that’s when the wind chill kicks in. Expect it to feel like we’re in the negatives tomorrow essentially everywhere west of 220. If you can avoid going outside, definitely stay indoors. If you have to go outside, it might not be a bad idea to bundle yourself up until you resemble the Michelin Man.
-Edward
Saturday Morning Update
As of 10:20 this morning, snow showers are scattered throughout the Southside, Lynchburg, Roanoke Valley, and New River Valley Zones.
As this coastal low pressure system deepens, snowfall rates will increase this afternoon as more moisture invades the area. The heaviest snowfall is set to move in during late morning to early afternoon.
Today’s setup shows the coastal low drawing closer to our region throughout the day. Behind this system, once precipitation wraps up, wind gusts will significantly increase in our area. This will once again cause dangerously cold wind chills on Sunday morning.
By 7 AM on Sunday, wind chills of “feels-like” temperatures will easily be in the negatives for the entirety of our viewing area. Please be sure to wear the proper gear if you are headed outdoors!
Cold weather alerts are in place from 1 PM Saturday through 1 PM Sunday.
Friday Evening Update
We are going to be really cold this weekend. After a brief rise in temperatures for part of next week, we will also turn quite cold again by next weekend.
We have also seen and continue to see some snow showers in parts of the area, mainly the New River Valley.
Several short-term forecasts have come in over the last couple of hours, continuing to hint at lower snowfall totals with this winter system.
Here is a slightly revised version from a few hours ago. We are now going 0-1″ in light blue, 1-3″ in pink, and 2-5″ in dark blue. Southwestern parts of the NRV and parts of Southside will see the most snow from this coastal low. And the most amount of snow from this system will fall late tonight through about early-to-mid afternoon Saturday. And all the snow goes away Saturday night.
The NWS has also taken Roanoke and Craig County out of the Winter Storm Warning status and has issued Winter Weather Advisories instead.
Friday Morning Update
Good morning! Radar scans as of 10:32 AM Friday show a few snow showers working their way into the region, but not yet making it to the ground! We are still seeing the atmosphere work towards a saturation point until the flurries reach us at the surface.
Our snow forecast has changed a bit with another southward shift of the storm this morning. The updated map is below! Stay safe and warm this weekend!
Thursday Evening Update
Saturday night and Sunday morning will be brutally cold. Lows will fall into the single digits and the 10s, but when you factor in the wind, it will feel like below zero in most areas.
The frigid spots will be the New River Valley and the Highlands, where it could feel as low as -20 degrees.
The National Weather Service has already issued Extreme Cold Watches for everyone on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Thursday Morning Update
A Winter Storm Warning is now in place for our region. This includes the NRV, Roanoke Valley, Southside, and Lynchburg Zones. This Winter Alert will expire by 1 PM on Sunday.
In terms of what we can expect from this event, widespread snowfall is once again in the equation, along with slick roadways. However, we do have very good news: the power outage potential and icing potential are much lower with this system, as it is an all-snowfall precip type. This snow will likely be powdery and dry in nature.
We are now 24 hours out from the start time of this event, with the accumulation forecast tweaked a bit due to a shift in the storm track.
Typically, during snowfall events in Southwest Virginia, the Highlands Zones receive the most snowfall, and Southside accumulates the least. This is all now turned on its head with a coastal system approaching.
The Southside and New River Valley Zones could see anywhere from 4-8″ of snowfall. The NRV, Lynchburg, and portions of the Highlands Zones are in a 2-5″ snowfall accumulation. The area that will pick up the least amount of snowfall will be the bulk of the Highland Zone; they will pick up anywhere from a coating to 2″ of snowfall.
Again, the best news out of this system is an all-snowfall precip type. This will be a very light and fluffy snow, and this is also why we have a reduced risk of power outages with this storm.
The timeline for this system is much simpler with one precipitation type. Snowfall will begin Friday afternoon, last on and off throughout the day on Saturday, and finally wrap up very early Sunday morning.
Wednesday Evening Update:
We are now tracking a potential nor’easter that will affect this weekend.
Models are slowly coming into agreement that this coastal low pressure system will impact southwest Virginia, that said, the track it takes will be the biggest determining factor in its snowfall totals.
Just like last weekend, it seems to be a battle between the GFS and The EURO for “best weather model”. Luckily, as we get closer to the storm they are starting to agree on numbers.
With the EURO, it is anticipating less snow due to its more eastward track. That said, with the GFS we are seeing a more westward scenario that would cause more of the area to see more snow in general. Both scenarios have Southside getting the most snow.
Due to the cold temperatures we have been seeing, it is looking like this event will be exclusively snow and no ice.
Tuesday Evening Update:
While the vast majority of the snow showers tonight (and tomorrow night) will stay to the west and north of us, every now and again, a few flurries and light snow showers may leak into the NRV and Highlands.
A light accumulation cannot be ruled out in the higher elevations of these two zones, although most of the accumulation will stay in West Virginia.
Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for Highland, Bath, and Alleghany counties. Lows tonight will fall close to 0 in the higher elevations of these counties, with single-digit lows in other areas. Additionally, because of the wind, it will feel below zero again tonight in the Highlands.
Lows elsewhere will be in the single digits and 10s.
And the freezing temperatures will filter all the way down to the Gulf Coast tonight.
Tuesday Morning Update:
The Extreme Cold Warning has spread to include even more of the region. Though it and the Cold Weather Advisory will end today at noon, frigid temperatures are here to stay.
Though not “advisory worthy”, there will still be about a 10 degree difference between the real temperature and the “feels like” temperature.
Wednesday morning will have wind chills that return into the negatives. That said, It is likely that more advisories will be issued throughout the week as the cold is here to stay.
These conditions are very brutal, and we urge that you stay bundled up or remain inside while these temperatures are as low as they are. Stay warm!
Monday Morning Update
Cold Weather Alerts have been issued for our entire viewing area. We have both Extreme Cold Warnings and a Cold Weather Advisory. This will go into effect 6 PM Monday night and not expire until 12 PM Tuesday afternoon.
These alerts will likely be issued throughout the week as our wind chill values take a big tumble. Each day this week at some point during the day we will have widespread wind chill numbers that fall below zero. This is dangerous weather to be out and unprepared in. Please be safe and stay warm!
Sunday Evening Update
A Weather Authority Alert Day has been issued for Monday, the 26th, through Saturday, the 31st. In the wake of our weekend winter storm, bitterly cold air will move into the region and bring dangerously cold wind chills each morning of the week.
Below is a summary of the coldest wind chill values for each day. We will continue to closely monitor the wind chill values during the week and keep you updated on air and online!