Roanoke, VA – After weeks of abnormally dry weather, a relatively wet pattern appears to be setting up.
High pressure in the Atlantic will continue to funnel moisture into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, which means we will have plenty of fuel for some showers and storms over the next several days.
Combine that with a front that’s expected to pass through and stall, and you get a very unsettled pattern that could lead to multiple rain chances.
With that being said- let’s walk through what to expect.
Rain We Don’t Have
The drought monitor will update again on Thursday, which will take into account all rain we’ve seen since last Tuesday. I don’t expect any significant changes with the update, but the rainfall we have on the way could make a huge difference in next week’s update.
The hardest hit part of the state remains the Piedmont region and Southside. This includes major areas such as Lynchburg, Appomattox, Danville, and Martinsville. Parts of the New River Valley are also starting to experience extreme drought.
Rain We Need
One of the most frequent questions asked about this drought is “how much rain do we need to end it?” Well, to end this drought in one month’s time, we’d need 9-13 inches from a statewide perspective, depending on what part of the state you’re in.
As a side note- this map is divided into six Climate Divisions from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. These divisions are determined based on monthly and yearly temperature and precipitation averages.
Rain We Could Get
Back to the pattern I mentioned earlier... We’ll have daily rain chances through the rest of this week and into next week as well. Not everyone will see rain every single day, as most of these showers and storms will be relatively scattered.
As for how much rain we could receive, it’s difficult to tell based on the spatial extent of where any showers and storms pop up. Currently, most models are indicating around 1-2.5″ falling over the course of the next 7 days. This is a VERY generalized number, and higher totals could be possible anywhere a thunderstorm with heavy rain pops up.
We need a substantial amount of rain to get us out of this drought, but safe to say, we likely have at least SOME relief on the way. This is great news for agriculture, rivers and lakes.