SALEM, Va. – Roanoke College released their May 2025 election poll on May 22, which asked likely Virginia voters multiple questions regarding their opinions on candidates for the upcoming 2025 election in Virginia, who they would vote for, if they feel the country is on the right path, among others. Over half of the interviews were conducted over the phone, and 39% were conducted by text-to-web.
658 people were interviewed between May 12 and May 19. Roanoke College said quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented.
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Are we moving in the right or wrong direction?
When interviewees were asked if they think the country is moving in the right or wrong direction, 33% said the right direction, and 66% said we were moving in the wrong direction. 2% of respondents were unsure.
When asked about the direction of the Commonwealth, 45% said we are moving in the right direction, 51% said we had gotten off on the wrong track, and 4% were unsure.
“Overall, folks are almost always happier with VA than USA.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.
Approval ratings of political figures
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined since February, with 31% approval (down from 37%), and 65% disapproval, which is up 6% from February.
As for Governor Glenn Youngkin, his approval rating has also decreased. He is currently at a 46% approval rating, which is down from 53% in February. Youngkin’s disapproval is at 48%, which is up from February’s 39%.
Favorability of political figures
Please note that, while favorability tends to correlate with approval, they are not the same statistic.
Donald Trump’s favorability has also gone down since the last poll, with 33% viewing him favorably. 64% of interviewees view him unfavorably, which is up from 58% in February. 3% of respondents said they were mixed, unsure, didn’t know, or refused the question.
Glenn Youngkin‘s favorability rating has dropped slightly since February. He is currently at 44% favorability and 50% unfavorability. He is 4 percentage points less favorable than he was in February, and 8 points more unfavorable. 6% said they didn’t know, or refused the question.
Abigail Spanberger‘s favorability was polled for the second time by the college. She received a rating of 41% favorability and 40% unfavorability. 19% of respondents didn’t know or refused the question.
Winsome Earle-Sears’s favorability was polled for the second time by the college as well. She received a rating of 32% favorability and 48% unfavorability. Similar to Spanberger, 19% of respondents didn’t know or refused the question.
Senator Mark Warner‘s favorability, which hasn’t been polled since October 2020, is currently sitting at 51%. His unfavorability is at 41%, and 8% of respondents were mixed, unsure, didn’t know, or refused the question.
When asked about Youngkin’s favorability decreasing since February, Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College, said the following:
“I don’t know, and there’s nothing specific in the poll to guide us. I’d speculate it could be President Trump pulling him down, Republican intraparty squabbling, and/or Democrats souring on everything. They are pretty unhappy.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College
How are respondents planning to vote?
Participants were also asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, and they had to decide who to vote for right now.
As of May 2025, 43% of respondents said they would vote for Abigail Spanberger, and 26% said they would vote for Winsome Earle-Sears. This is an increase in Spanberger’s lead from February, which saw her leading Sears by 15 points.
Although Spanberger currently holds a major lead, 28% of respondents said they are undecided, and 3% said they would vote for another candidate.
“Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points. More than a quarter of Virginians are undecided, and there is good news for both candidates. Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears. The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College
Federal debt
Respondents were also asked what their opinions were on ways to reduce the federal debt. Overall, 82% of respondents answered either “somewhat” or “very” concerned when asked about the deficit and national debt. When asked about increasing tax rates for those making $400,000 or more a year, 74% of respondents were in favor, while 23% opposed. However, when asked about tax rate increases for everyone, only 17% of respondents were in favor, and 82% opposed.
When it comes to cutting spending for programs to decrease the federal debt, only 26% were in favor, and 71% opposed. When asked about cutting programs other than defense, Social Security and Medicare, 41% were in favor, and 56% opposed. 43% of respondents were in favor of cutting defense spending, and 55% opposed.
Respondents also answered in favor of Social Security and Medicare, as when they were asked whether they should be significantly changed to save money, only 24% were in favor, and 73% were not.
“With regard to the deficit and debt, most see them as a problem, but not as many seem to be willing to pay the piper.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College
Crosstabs
The polling data also provided select crosstabs, such as how Democrats, Republicans, and Independent voters answered certain questions. As expected, those who identify as Democrats have higher favorability and approval ratings of Democratic figures, and Republicans have higher favorability and approval ratings of Republican figures.
Independents had split views on the candidates as well. Youngkin holds a 42% approval rating among independents, the highest out of any of the other names polled. Mark Warner comes in a close second at 41%. Aside from Youngkin, independents are currently polling more in favor of Democratic figures and the Democratic Party as a whole.
Independents also support Spanberger when asked who they would vote for. 33% of independents said they would vote for Spanberger, with only 19% for Earle-Sears.
The poll contained over 30 questions, so less significant topics were not covered here. If you’d like all information, as well as the raw polling data, you can visit the Roanoke College website here.
Roanoke College plans to poll voters again in August.
