ROANOKE, Va. – Consumer confidence in Virginia continues to fall, raising alarms about the Commonwealth’s economic outlook even as employment and wages remain strong.
The Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 63.6 in the second quarter of 2025, marking a 14-point decline over the past six months. According to Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, that’s the second-lowest level recorded since the index began in 2011.
Economists point to growing uncertainty over the effects of tariffs as the main driver of the downward trend. Although job growth remains healthy and wage increases are outpacing inflation, experts warn that sustained consumer pessimism could have ripple effects on the broader economy.
“Looking at all the data together, consumer sentiment isn’t going to tell us we’re in a recession,” said Dr. Alice Kassens, senior analyst with the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. “It can give us a warning that we may be heading that way. If tariffs persist at a very high rate, then I think, more likely than not, we will be in a recession by the end of the year.”
While Virginians are still more optimistic than the national average—with 30% expecting their finances to improve over the next year—economists say consumer sentiment will be an important trend to watch heading into the second half of 2025.
The index is updated quarterly and reflects Virginians’ attitudes about their current finances, expectations for the future, and general business conditions.