Storm in Caribbean forecast to become Humberto by Saturday morning

Track remains fairly uncertain as it nears East Coast

ROANOKE, Va. – The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories and forecasts for a storm that will likely become Humberto Saturday morning. Their forecast takes the storm through the Bahamas and then close to the East Coast through early next week as a tropical storm, before being ushered out to sea as a Category 1 hurricane. 

It's important to note, however, that there is room for change with this forecast. As you can see below, there's not a well-defined center to the storm. Therefore, forecast models (simulations of the atmosphere) have struggled with where to take it. 

That said, it's unlikely that it drifts far north enough to move directly through our area like Michael and Florence did last year. High pressure to the north will likely stop it from coming that far.

The yellow scenario below is becoming increasingly unlikely.

The red scenario is still possible, in which the storm could stall over the Carolinas and wind up giving us some rain.

However, most forecast data at the moment is leaning toward the green scenario. That would mean a cooler, drier midweek for us. 

The reason why there's room for change is that the hurricane hunters are investigating the storm Friday. The information they find will be fed into forecast data. Should they defined a well-developed center, that may change the projected course of the storm.

Stay tuned with StormTeam 10, as we continue to watch this storm over the coming days.

About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.