Beyond The Forecast: Tropics heating up as peak of hurricane season approaches


Happy Monday! In case you missed it, Tropical Storms Josephine and Kyle fell apart over the weekend. That means we don’t currently have any named storms in the Atlantic basin, but that could change very soon as we enter the peak of hurricane season. The climatological peak is Aug. 20 to Oct. 10.

The National Hurricane Center has its eye on two tropical waves that have medium chances for development over the next five days. The organization is giving the wave that is further east a slightly better chance to develop than the one that will soon enter the Caribbean.


If these waves are able to organize and strengthen into a named storm, they would become the 12th and 13th of the season. The next names on the list are Laura and Marco.


It will be extremely important to track any new storms that form over the next month and a half because they will have plenty of fuel to strengthen.

Water temperatures [or sea surface temperatures (SST)] in the Gulf and Atlantic are very high.


More waves are likely to eject off the west coast of Africa in the weeks ahead.

UNC Charlotte meteorology graduate student Eric Webb noted on Twitter this morning that climatology, the overall activity this year in the Atlantic basin and the Madden-Julian oscillation (a periodic tropical weather fluctuation) will all work in tandem to make for an active stretch in the tropics.

Look for frequent tropical updates from Your Local Weather Authority via our newscasts, our weather app, and social media.

Switching gears to your local forecast, we’re starting the new work week with highs in the 80s and reduced humidity. Rain chances for most of us will be low through Tuesday, but the pattern will get more active starting Wednesday. Meteorologist Chris Michaels broke down what we expect in our daily forecast article.

You can always get specific forecast details for your zone, whether it’s the Roanoke Valley, Lynchburg, the New River Valley or elsewhere around southwest and central Virginia, anytime at Know your zone!

In case you missed it, we’re posting great weather content on Here are a few links from the past week to check out:

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-- Justin McKee