ROANOKE, Va. – A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Grayson, Smyth and Tazewell Counties through 10 p.m. Tuesday.
Tuesday
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We’re tracking a weak system Tuesday that will bring snow mostly to our west-facing slopes, especially during the afternoon and evening. Having said that, it’s possible that some flurries and snow showers skip east of the mountains and into parts of the New River Valley, Highlands and higher portions of the Roanoke Valley.
For the rest of us, we’ll see times of clouds and sunshine through Tuesday afternoon with fairly similar temperatures to what we had Monday afternoon.
Expect the wind to pick up later in the day, as this weak disturbance moves through. We don’t expect anything crazy, but you’ll still notice the wind picking up a bit.
Friday
Beyond that, all eyes turn toward the forecast Friday. We’ll be tracking a strong area of low pressure gliding from west to east through the Carolinas.
This is a favorable track for wintry weather, but the exact track and how fast it moves east will determine just how much we see. This isn’t the kind of system that comes up from the south. Rather, it goes from west to east and that could create a sharp cutoff between inches of snow and nothing.
If this goes farther south, the moisture will be confined to areas closer to the North Carolina-Virginia line. If it comes farther north, the moisture can spread throughout the region, giving us a better chance of accumulation.
By taking 50 variations of the European forecast model, we can show the odds of different amounts of snow Friday. Keep in mind that this too can change, depending on how far south or north the storm goes.
As of Tuesday morning, 1″ of snow is possible near and to the south of I-64 with the highest odds near and south of Hwy 58.
The odds of 3″ of snow are still highest close to the North Carolina-Virginia border. It’s possible that we see amounts that high as far north as the Roanoke Valley. However, that all depends on our storm’s track.
As for the odds of 6″ of snow or more, those go down dramatically. We’d need a prolonged storm farther north for that to occur.
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has said that Winter Storm Watches may be needed, so keep checking back for updates as we fine-tune the forecast and get more refined data in the coming days.
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