Nicole’s local impact: Tracking rain, wind and possible severe storms Veterans Day

Nicole sends rounds of rain and storms into the area through Friday evening

ROANOKE, Va. – Nicole - as of early Friday morning - is a tropical depression located just to our south. That does not change any of the expected impacts to our area.

Let’s break it down in detail below.

Timing

Nicole’s outer bands of rain have already arrived in parts of the area. These will continue to shift northward through the morning commute, making for a less-than-ideal drive into work Friday morning.

FutureTracker - 8 a.m. Friday

Late morning into the afternoon, there will be some breaks in the widespread activity. Unfortunately, this allows the atmosphere to warm up.

Any storm that develops in that warmer air will have the chance to a) produce localized wind damage or b) rotate. This window of opportunity exists between roughly 10 a.m. and 5 p.m.

FutureTracker - 1 p.m. Friday

After that time, Nicole’s remnants merge with a front. That increased energy in the atmosphere results in widespread rain between roughly 5 p.m. and 11 p.m.

FutureTracker - 7 p.m. Friday

Wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph will be possible during this time, and that could lead to a few sporadic power outages.

Totals and Severe Weather Threat

Including what you’ve seen already, rain totals will mostly be on the order of 1 to 3 inches. There will be some spots - especially along the spine of the Blue Ridge Parkway - that see higher totals and a localized flood threat.

Projected rainfall totals from Nicole on Friday

As mentioned in the previous section of this article, a few damaging/rotating thunderstorms will be possible between roughly 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. Friday.

That threat is slightly higher for areas shaded in yellow in the map below.

Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Friday, 11/11/2022

This is where we’re expected to be warmer Friday afternoon, as high temperatures reach into the low to mid 70s.

High temperature forecast as Nicole's remnants pass through on Friday

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The Forecast Beyond Nicole

Beyond Nicole, we turn breezy at times. However, we’ll stay relatively mild Saturday.

It’s expected that we stay mostly dry for the Veterans Day Parade in downtown Roanoke. A few showers will be possible by late afternoon and evening.

Veterans Day Parade planner for Saturday in downtown Roanoke

Colder air catches up to us late Saturday night into Sunday. Despite sunshine, highs Sunday will mostly reach the 40s before falling into the 20s Monday morning.

Weekend forecast for 11/12 and 11/13/2022

We’ll track another storm system next Tuesday.

With a cold airmass already in place, it’s possible that we see patches of a wintry mix early on.

However, it’s more likely that we’re left with a chilly rain during the afternoon and evening.

What we're tracking by Tuesday, 11/15/2022

We’ll stay unseasonably cold for the rest of next week.


About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.