ROANOKE, Va. – Monday Night Update:
This WAAD has expired.
Monday Afternoon Update
Radar scans as of 3:59PM this afternoon show very isolated snow showers across the New River Valley, but most wintery precipitation is tapering off for the evening. A few upslope snow showers are possible in the mountains of West Virginia, however those will finish off around midnight as well.
The Weather Authority Alert Day will be expired later this evening.
Monday Morning Update
Ice, sleet, and snow are all possible through the rest of the day thanks to cold air funneling in from the north, and moisture moving in from the south.
A wintry mix continues through 8:00am this morning.
A break in the precipitation occurs roughly between 10:00am and 1:00pm this afternoon.
By the middle of the afternoon, the chance for snow returns as lake effect snow moves in from the north and west.
The greatest odds of seeing 1 inch of snow are near I-64 and north. Though some areas surrounding Lynchburg and the Roanoke Valley will have a good chance at seeing a light accumulation.
Parts of the NRV will also see a light dusting later today.
Sunday Night Update
Sunday Evening Update
Snowfall has now transitioned over to mixed wintery precipitation across portions of the Roanoke, Lynchburg, and New River Valley Zones.
This mixed precipitation is now falling on roadways with temperatures well below zero, causing road conditions to become slick. Avoid traveling if at all possible this evening and tomorrow morning.
The worst of the freezing precipitation will continue overnight. Totals will range from a trace/tenth of an inch of ice to nearly half an inch of ice accumulation. This will cause the most disruption in travel.
Sunday Afternoon Update
Snowflakes are already falling across the viewing area, causing road conditions to deteriorate rapidly.
Sunday Morning Update
Not much has changed within the forecast for snow or ice accumulations, as we now have a clear idea of what to expect.
IMPACT TIMELINE New River Valley: earliest impacts by 12 pm.
Highlands: earliest impacts by 1 PM.
Roanoke Valley: earliest impacts 2 PM
Southside: earliest impacts by 2 PM
Lynchburg: earliest impacts by 3 PM.
Any precipitation that falls has the risk of refreezing in the coming days with temperatures plummeting below freezing over the next several days.
Saturday Morning Update
With bitterly cold temperatures arriving today and expected to last throughout the week, chances for wintry precipitation refreezing in the coming days will increase.
We’re expecting the beginning of this event to occur in the late afternoon Sunday, with conditions expected to deteriorate in the evening hours. This will last overnight and into Monday, where we’ll see a bit of a shift to a cold rain. After the cold front passes, a few lingering snow showers will last within the area.
While I think the European model overdoes the precipitation totals for this event, I believe the timing is very accurate. There’s still a lot to be determined, and models are not in consensus just yet for what kind of precipitation we receive, and how much we receive as well.
Friday Evening Weather Update
Here Is a look at your 7 p.m. weather update.
Friday Afternoon Update
The weather maker that we are watching for significant wintery impacts this weekend has now formed in the Pacific Northwest.
Here is a better look at this system that will become more well-defined over the next few days as it heads our way, bringing a wintery mess with all precipitation types possible.
This afternoon we have had several fast-moving snow squalls that have caused some very light accumulations in the higher elevations in our viewing area. This is not the main snowfall event that we will see this weekend.
In the wake of snow squalls moving through the area this evening, some roads are either wet, or snowy, and in some portions of the higher elevations, icy.
It is very important to stay weather-aware as we head into the weekend and don’t venture onto roadways unless absolutely neccesary.
12:00PM Friday Update
We are continuing to analyze the latest and up-to-date information and computer model guidance this afternoon.
Below is a look at snow totals for 3 models that we use on a daily basis. There is some disparity, but also agreement on locations receiving the greatest impacts and highest snow totals.
Given what we know thus far, we have a good understanding of what the general impacts will be for most across the area.
Snow and sleet totals are something that you are probably curious about. Below is our first official snow and sleet forecast for this weekend’s weather event. These values will shift in the next 24-36 hours.
Most can expect all types of winter weather (snow, rain, sleet, freezing rain, ice) from 12:00pm Sunday through Monday evening.
Friday Morning Update
The timeline has shifted forward a little bit this morning. This means impacts will be felt a couple of hours sooner Sunday afternoon. The timing will continue to shift over the next 24-36 hours, but the impacts remain the same.
The overall setup Sunday afternoon/evening continues to favor mixed precipitation for Southwest and Central Virginia.
The odds of seeing 1 inch of snow continue to increase for everyone. The highest chance for snow accumulation remains in the Highlands and along the west facing slopes where multiple inches of snow are possible.
Ice will also be a factor with this system. Freezing rain, and the refreezing of fallen precipitation will cause for slick roads Sunday night and Monday morning. Accumulation amounts range anywhere from a glazing to a quarter inch over the 24 hour period.
Note, that mixed precipitation will be falling and changing on and off every few hours. So, values and totals will change.
The chances of seeing snow, ice, sleet, and rain this weekend are increasing.
Temperatures across the mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and Great Lakes region will be below freezing temperatures Sunday night and Monday.
The overall setup favors widespread snow showers moving in along the leading edge of the cold front. Heavier snow is possible behind as the system treks east.
Cold air and gusty winds will provide a frigid wind chill to every zone. Winter precipitation will be hit or miss for most, however, impacts will be felt everywhere regardless of which type of precipitation falls in your neighborhood.
The European model has been extremely consistent on bringing measurable and impactful snowfall to all of Southwest and Central Virginia starting Sunday afternoon, and wrapping up around noon on Monday.
The Highlands looks to be the spot with the greatest snow impacts for this specific model and model run.
The American model has also been extremely consistent in bringing a lackluster amount of snow to the area.
Snow totals are near a tenth for most, with the Highlands being the spot for favorable accumulation.
Something to note is that even though snowfall totals differ greatly between models, the areas with accumulations are the same, the Highlands.
Below is a look at the odds of seeing 1 inch of snow over the course of this event. Areas along the I-81 corridor and north have the highest chances of seeing impactful snow amounts.
Areas that see snow, will also see rain, and ice. Freezing rain will be an issue for all of Southwest and Central Virginia as temperatures will fluctuate between freezing and nonfreezing temperatures.
Travel will begin to be treacherous Sunday evening and continue through Monday.
Any rain that falls, or any snow that melts will freeze overnight and turn to ice as well.
Here is an estimate of the cold front impacts timeline. At first, snow will fall, then a wintry mix that includes freezing rain, then rain, and another round of snow is possible after.
Changes will occur with this forecast leading up to the event. For more information and to stay up to date on all things weather, download our weather app and check back in on this article for updates.
