ROANOKE, VA – If there are two weather conditions most commonly associated with spring, it’s warmer temperatures and thunderstorms—both of which are in the forecast for the upcoming week.
We kick the work week off with seasonable conditions in the 50s Monday and Tuesday. With high pressure in the region, we’ll see plenty of sunshine as well.
Cloud cover begins to increase Tuesday evening, with a few pop-up showers after sunset. Those showers will continue overnight, with an increase in coverage early Wednesday morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. Eventually, we may see a few rumbles of thunder later in the day. Ample southerly air will warm us into the mid to upper 60s.
The timing of this frontal passage is going to be the key factor in how strong thunderstorm development is. If the front continues as currently expected and makes passage in the morning, our thunderstorm chances will be confined to the eastern parts of the state. If the front stalls at all and slows down, we could see more thunderstorms within our region, some of which could be strong.
As of right now, I think the former is more likely, with severe thunderstorms being limited to the I-95 corridor and into the Hampton Roads area.
This isn’t ruling out the possibility of a stronger to severe storm, especially to areas east of Lynchburg that could see more sunshine in advance of the cold front. The primary risk for any storm that develops will be damaging winds. The tornado threat is low, but nonzero.
Regardless, winds will be gusty with quite a bit of morning rainfall that lasts into the early afternoon. Luckily, this is a fast moving front, so flash flooding risk will be limited.
Afterwards, temperatures cool off and hover just around the 50 degree mark on Thursday. Winds will still be rather blustery, and we’ll warm back up into the 50s and 60s Friday and Saturday before another system makes its way through. That system will not be like Wednesday’s, only providing a few isolated showers.
