ROANOKE, Va. – Sunday Evening Update
The Weather Authority Alert Day has been cleared as the severe weather threat has subsided.
Sunday Afternoon Update
Most of the region is sunny and dry for now after the initial frontal passage. Tornado watches have been issued further to the north of our viewing area. We’ll have to monitor any discrete cells that pop up, as ample sunshine could intensify them. As for now, it appears the threat of severe weather is low, but certainly still possible.
Saturday Evening Update
A Weather Authority Alert Day continues for Sunday as we watch the potential for damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes.
Storm reports over the past 24 hours illustrate this potent weather-maker’s tornado-producing nature. Every tornado icon on this map signifies a report of tornado damage.
The first round of rain will arrive in the early morning, moving through around 4-7AM. This will be an organized line ahead of the cold front.
The second round will arrive in the afternoon around 1-2PM and favor discrete supercells that are very isolated. The amount of sunshine that we receive in between rounds will determine how much additional fuel will be in the atmosphere that may allow these storms to rotate and drop isolated tornadoes.
Saturday Morning Update
While most of the Gulf Coast will experience a dangerous tornado outbreak later today, we’ll be dry for most of the morning. As this storm system moves in tonight and into tomorrow, we’ll have to watch for the chance of significant wind damage, a few tornadoes, and hail.
Friday Morning Update
The severe risk for tomorrow is a level 1/5 for most of Southwest Virginia. The higher level 2/5 potential for severe weather exists in western portions of the NRV.
Sunday brings the chance for a more scattered coverage of storms to the area as most are under a level 2/5 risk.
Here is a look at futurecast Saturday afternoon. Isolated showers are likely in the afternoon, but the chance for isolated storms grows as we head into the Saturday evening/night.
Once we get to midnight, the threat for severe weather increases as storms move in from the west.
Here is a look at 7am Sunday morning. Scattered storms push in bringing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The potential for small hail and a brief tornado are low, but not entirely ruled out.
Once we get into the afternoon, the chance for strong isolated storms develops.
Winds will start to gust Saturday afternoon, and will continue through Sunday. Winds have the potential to be higher during passing storms.
Severe Weather Threat From Saturday Afternoon To Sunday Evening
The potential for severe weather over the next couple of days is growing across the country. Damaging and destructive winds, localized flooding, isolated and long track tornadoes and hail are all possible in multiple parts of the country through Sunday.
Here is a look at Saturday afternoon. A level 4/5 moderate (red) risk for severe weather is in place for the Mississippi Valley and Dixie Alley. Later in the afternoon and evening, some of the instability associated with this system will make its way into Southwest Virginia.
Here is a look at futurecast at 7 p.m. on Saturday. Isolated showers and storms will move in with the potential for severe weather to move into the New River Valley, Roanoke Valley and the Highlands.
Overnight, the threat moves east, but the potential for severe weather now includes most of Southwest and Central Virginia. Showers and storms are expected during the morning hours before wrapping up in the early to mid-afternoon. Details on the timing are likely to change as more high resolution weather models spew out data closer to the event.
So far, this event looks to mostly be a wind threat. Straight line winds could be damaging and/or destructive in storms that push in. Localized flooding, isolated tornadoes, hail and lightning are also possible. Given the severity of this system, it will have to be monitored as it treks across the upper Midwest and Southeast before impacting us.
Here is an overview of the expected weekend weather threats/impacts.
Saturday’s severe weather outlook is highest for the New River Valley. Expect changes in the specifics over the next 24-36 hours as we hone in the details for where the threats are highest.
Sunday’s risk includes much of Southwest and Central Virginia. Once we know how this system is performing in the areas prior to reaching us, and have the timing down a little better, we will be able to visually indicate which areas will have the highest likelihood of seeing severe weather on Sunday.
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