Roanoke, VA – With June just around the corner, it means we’re not only getting close to the beginning of summer, but also to the beginning of Hurricane Season.
You may have seen predictions about what we could be in store for with this upcoming season, as both NOAA and Colorado State University have forecasted a below average season this year. This is largely due to the likely emergence of El Nino, which very well could become strong this year.
2026’s list of names was last used during the record breaking 2020 Hurricane Season. That was the year we ended up using every name on the list, and had to dip into a second, auxiliary list composed of the Greek alphabet.
Of the names from 2020, three were retired. Laura was the only one of the original list that was retired, and was replaced with Leah. Eta and Iota were also retired. The World Meteorological Organization would later decide to discontinue the Greek alphabet altogether for named storms, and replace it with a secondary list of names beginning in 2021.
Back to the topic of El Nino- we are currently in ENSO-neutral conditions, but that is likely to change in the coming months. The Climate Prediction Center is giving an 82% chance of El Nino emerging between May and July, with an even greater likelihood of it continuing into winter (96% chance).
El Nino years are classified as when sea surface temperatures run 0.5° C (32.9°F) above average at the equator in the Pacific Ocean, stretching from the International Date Line to the western coast of South America.
For this year, there’s a decent chance we see a strong or very strong El Nino. Strong El Nino years happen when sea surface temperatures run between 1.5° and 2.0° Celsius (34.7-35.6°F), with very strong years running anything above that. There is a 2 in 3 chance we end up in a strong El Nino, and a 1 in 3 chance we end up with a very strong El Nino.
So what does this mean for the tropics?
In short, El Nino creates more wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical systems need lots of organization to form and sustain themselves, so when strong wind shear is introduced, they’re commonly ripped apart. El Nino makes it harder for tropical systems to form in the Atlantic. The contrary can be said in the Pacific, where there is less wind shear, and a good chance for an above average season.
Should we end up with a very strong El Nino year, it would be the first time since 2015-2016. That year, we had a significantly below average hurricane season, with 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
As to what happens this year, it’ll largely depend on the strength of El Nino. While El Nino does not make it impossible for tropical systems to form, it makes it much harder for them to get organized.
I’ll also say this- stronger El Nino and La Nina events DO NOT always mean bigger weather and climate impacts. Stronger events make it MORE LIKELY certain impacts may occur, but nothing is certain. Just because you enter a raffle more than once, it doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to have your name drawn.
What El Nino means for winter on the other hand, is a bit of a different story that will most certainly get it’s own story later in the year.