Nobody paying attention over the past 24 months would be surprised to see Indiana leading the way into this year’s College Football Playoff.
But anyone paying attention over the last 24 hours knew the only sure thing beyond the Hoosiers was that the playoff selection committee was destined to get picked apart when it released the pairings for this season's 12-team bracket on Sunday.
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Most of that second-guessing will be coming from Notre Dame, which was passed over for Alabama and Miami for two bubble spots. The Fighting Irish dropped two notches in the CFP rankings over the last two weeks, to No. 11, despite a 10-game winning streak, winning their finale by 29 points and simply sitting on the couch Saturday.
A few hours after being left out, the Irish said they would skip bowl season altogether this year.
Alabama is still in the mix after not moving at all in the CFP rankings despite a 28-7 loss to No. 3 Georgia that looked worse than that.
No. 10 Miami didn't play either, but the Hurricanes' 27-24 win over Notre Dame in Week 1 played a role once the teams were grouped right next to each other after BYU lost its game on Saturday and dropped one spot.
“Everyone can spin the metrics in favor of the team or teams they support,” committee chairman Hunter Yurachek explained. “You're always going to have controversy. That’s why we debated for so long, 9, 10 and 11, into the early-moning hours, and woke up at sunrise to do the same thing — make sure we got it right.”
The committee’s other key decision was choosing James Madison over Duke for the final spot. The selection left the Atlantic Coast Conference champion out of the mix, but didn’t fully exclude the ACC because Miami made it.
The rest of the field includes No. 2 seed Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech, which all joined Indiana in getting first-round byes.
The Hoosiers moved up to No. 1 with their 13-10 win over the Buckeyes on Saturday — their first Big Ten title since 1967 — and their 1-2 positioning sets up a possible rematch in the national title game Jan. 19.
Then it was No. 5 seed Oregon, followed by Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Alabama, Miami, American champion Tulane and James Madison of the Sun Belt.
The playoffs start Dec. 19 with No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma. On Dec. 20, it's No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon.
The winners move to the quarterfinals, which will feature Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Eve, then Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, Indiana in the Rose Bowl and Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
A costly miss for Notre Dame
It was a particularly costly and painful snub for the Fighting Irish. They lost their first two games of the season – one to Miami, the other to Texas A&M -- by a combined four points. They did not play a tough schedule the rest of the way; it was ranked 44th, compared to sixth for Alabama but 45th for Miami. But the Irish won all those games easily.
It also hurts the pocketbook. Where conferences split $4 million for each team they place into the first round, Notre Dame – as an independent – would have banked the full amount for itself.
Yurachek said the committee had not previously considered Miami’s Aug. 31 win over Notre Dame because there were always other teams in the mix, namely Alabama and BYU. But when BYU lost, the Irish and Hurricanes ended up right next to each other, which made that Miami win more important. Yurachek directed the committee to go back and rewatch it.
“Really, how Miami's defense dominated Notre Dame's running game, where for the rest of the season, their running game dominated most of the teams they played,” Yurachek said when asked what the committee saw in that game.
Alabama back in after snub last year
Alabama (10-3) is in despite three losses. Those who believe the Tide deserve it will look at these factors:
—An eight-game winning streak after a shocking 14-point, season-opening loss to Florida State that included a 24-21 victory at Georgia for a season split while, for instance, BYU lost both its games against Texas Tech.
--Ignoring the above, there was the “you can’t lose ground for playing in the title game” argument. Last year, Alabama had three losses and was passed over for SMU, which was coming off a loss in the ACC title game. Using the same logic, someone other than the Tide needed to go this time.
Duke's argument falls on deaf ears
Duke tried to make a compelling argument that its seven wins over Power Four teams, including the victory over Virginia in the ACC title game, made it more deserving than James Madison for that fifth and final automatic spot for conference champs.
But the Blue Devils had five losses. And Virginia was ranked four (now nine) spots lower than Miami, the ACC's best team by many measurements.
James Madison's playoff game against a mega-team from a mega-conference — Oregon — will suss out whether teams like that should be playing for the title.
History, however, might look back on Duke's win if league title games are ever eliminated from the schedule due to their growing irrelevance. Other than eliminating BYU (but not Alabama) and flip-flopping Indiana and Ohio State, this year's set of games in the Power Four meant next to nothing.
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