34ºF

A week divided: November winds and chill to start; warmer air prevails later

While temperatures flip flop halfway through the week, we’ll stay dry through the weekend

Upper air pattern as of Wednesday, 11/18/2020
Upper air pattern as of Wednesday, 11/18/2020

ROANOKE, Va. – A cold front that passed through Sunday has changed the way we feel already Monday morning. The air is drier, and there’s an added nip thanks to a gusty northwest wind. That wind will keep up through much of the day Monday.

Wind speed and direction for Monday, 11/16/2020
Wind speed and direction for Monday, 11/16/2020

This will keep afternoon temperatures 10° cooler than Sunday, despite the fact that we’ll see wall-to-wall sunshine throughout the day.

High temperature forecast for Monday, 11/16/2020
High temperature forecast for Monday, 11/16/2020

That crystal clear sky continues into most of the night, which should bode well for sky-gazers! The Leonid meteor shower peaks early Tuesday morning with 10-15 shooting stars visible per hour.

Leonid meteor shower peaking early Tuesday morning
Leonid meteor shower peaking early Tuesday morning

While that’s going on, folks in Honduras and Nicaragua will be dealing with their second major hurricane in as many weeks. The forecast path for Iota is eerily similar to that of Eta.

The path of Iota vs. the path of Eta - 2020
The path of Iota vs. the path of Eta - 2020

However, it isn’t expected to curve back north like Eta did.

Instead, we’ll be dealt a blast of cold air through mid-week. This may actually be enough to send temperatures below freezing Wednesday and Thursday mornings, which is something that hasn’t happened yet this fall in Lynchburg or Roanoke.

Morning lows from 11/17 to 11/21/2020
Morning lows from 11/17 to 11/21/2020

For Lynchburg, this will be the latest first fall freeze on record!

First fall freeze records for each region
First fall freeze records for each region

As soon as we cool down, we warm right back up. The jet stream retreats north, allowing temperatures to rise well into the 60s late this week and into the weekend.

Upper air pattern by Friday, 11/20/2020
Upper air pattern by Friday, 11/20/2020

The trend through Thanksgiving is for temperatures to be above average (average is mid 50s during the day and mid 30s at night).

Temperature and precipitation trends through Thanksgiving 2020
Temperature and precipitation trends through Thanksgiving 2020

Precipitation trends start to buckle a bit, as we may have a front or two pass through next week.


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