Low humidity leads to October feel Thursday morning; eyes on the Gulf

Expect temperatures in the 40s and 50s first thing Thursday morning

Feeling a bit like fall early Thursday morning

ROANOKE, Va. – The mugginess has taken a temporary leave of absence, and most of us approve! With high pressure continuing to come into control of our weather, we’ll keep the humidity low and the sunshine plentiful throughout the day Wednesday.

Highs will range from the 70s in the NRV to the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, June 16, 2021

The dew point (moisture level) not only affects how things feel during the day, but it can help determine how low temperatures go at night. It’s basically a threshold for that.

How the dew point impacts overnight lows

Therefore, expect temperatures to drop into the 40s and 50s by the time the sun rises Thursday morning. At least we’ll give the A/C a break!

Windows open heading into Thursday morning

Don’t get too used to that, though. Humidity levels jump, as we head into the weekend. It’s at this point that we’ll be keeping an eye on a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has placed high odds on this becoming tropical by the weekend.

Odds of tropical development as of 3 a.m., Wednesday, June 16, 2021

This will likely throw some moisture our way by Father’s Day, but any direct impact would likely wait until Monday.

Tracking moisture levels by Father's Day - 2021

If this interacts with a front to the north and west, we may not get as much rain. However, if it stands along and rides the Appalachians, we could be dealing with some very heavy rain and potential flooding next Monday.

For the holiday weekend, we expect it to be fairly hot and breezy Friday and Saturday. Most showers and storms Saturday would target the mountains, with a few moving east later in the day. The chance for scattered storms goes up slightly by Father’s Day.

Father's Day Weekend forecast (2021) as of Wednesday, 6/16

For updates on the holiday weekend forecast and on our potential tropical system, be sure to download our weather app.

About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.