Despite groundhog’s prediction, southwest Virginia to bounce between winter, spring this week

40s, 50s, 60s and possible winter weather all on the table Wednesday through Sunday

ROANOKE, Va. – Hours before Punxsutawney Phil gets woken up for his annual prognostication, we here in southwest Virginia are starting out quite cold. You may want to get the ice scraper out. I know my car windshield was frosted over earlier in the morning.

Clouds and temperatures gradually increase. Highs reach the 40s and 50s depending on your elevation.

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, 2/2/2022

Some showers may arrive late as moist air rides north of a warm front. This warm front stays south of us throughout much of the day Thursday. This allows periods of rain to develop.

FutureTracker - 7 a.m. Thursday, 2/3/2022

This also makes for a backwards trend in temperatures. We mostly stay in the 40s throughout the day. As the warm front creeps north at night, temperatures rise. So, the high temperature Thursday happens at night.

Hourly temperature forecast for Thursday, 2/3/2022

Conversely, the high temperature Friday happens in the morning. A cold front moves through, bringing more rain to the area. A brief period of freezing rain will be possible north of I-64 through roughly midday Friday.

FutureTracker - 7 a.m. Friday, 2/4/2022

Then, our attention turns to the weekend. Friday afternoon and Saturday will be cold and dry. Come Sunday, we’re tracking two key pieces of energy - one to the north and one to the south.

Two key pieces of energy to track heading into Sunday, 2/6/2022

If these can gel together, we’d be looking at a higher chance for winter weather Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Scenario 1: Pieces don't gel - lower chance of winter weather Sunday

If they stay more disjointed, we’d be looking at a lower chance of winter weather during that time frame.

Scenario 2: Pieces gel - higher chance of winter weather Sunday

Forecast data is struggling with how to make the pieces fit, so we’ll keep you posted on this potential throughout the next few days.


About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.