Needing rain! Dry period continues for much of this week; low rain totals Friday

Drought will persist through at least the next 1-2 weeks before a potential flip in the weather pattern

ROANOKE, Va. – High pressure continues to be the main source of our weather the next 2-3 days, resulting in (yet again) dry weather. The umbrella collects dust Tuesday, as sunshine fills the air and lifts afternoon temperatures into the 60s.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, 11/14/2023

Frost will be patchy - if not likely - Wednesday and Thursday mornings. We won’t be cold enough for it Friday.

Frost potential through Friday, 11/17/2023

This comes as we track a cold front coming in from the west. At the same time, a potential tropical system will be off the East Coast. Recent forecast data shows this late-season storm gobbling up a lot of the moisture that we need.

Showers will be possible late Friday/Friday night

This results in minimal rain totals late Friday into Friday night.

Projected rain totals for Friday, 11/17/2023

Once the front passes east, we’ll turn breezy, dry and cooler for the weekend. As if the threat for brush fires wasn’t high enough, it could increase given the drop in humidity and rise in wind this weekend.

Check here for a list of counties/cities with burn bans in place. Even if you’re not under a burn ban, having any sort of fire is a bad idea right now.

Ahead of Thanksgiving, most forecast data shows a storm system riding along the Southern U.S. There are indications that we see rain in the late Tuesday/early Wednesday time frame. How much, however, has yet to be determined.

Potential weather setup ahead of Thanksgiving

This is at least a brighter glimmer of hope for an area in desperate need of rain. When the jet stream (winds at airplane level) dips southward, that tends to favor more storms in the Eastern U.S.

Active storm track set to return for the last week of November 2023

This is typical of an El Niño pattern, which should hopefully help us chip away at the drought in the coming weeks and months.

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About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.