ROANOKE, Va. – Thursday Morning Update
Our Weather Authority Alert Day has been cleared. The threat of wintery precipitation is now out of the region.
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Wednesday Evening Update
Ice totals across the region have varied from nearly three quarters of an inch to around a quarter, and we are not done yet.
Freezing rain is continuing to fall across the region and will make the Thursday morning commute quite icy in some spots.
As of 6:03PM, radar is showing both rain and freezing rain falling in the area. This will continue for the next few hours, and will contribute to both hazardous road conditions now and tomorrow morning.
Wednesday Afternoon Update
Winter Storm Warnings across the viewing area have been extended for the counties highlighted in pink, until 7AM tomorrow.
This extension is due to the continued threat of freezing rain and sleet that will bring additional ice accumulation on trees, powerlines and roadways.
This map illustrates the amount of freezing rain we are expected to accumulate this afternoon and evening. New River Valley, Roanoke Valley and portions of the Lynchburg Zone could pick up an additional quarter of an inch of ice.
Temperatures will not warm up much today, with highs reaching the mid and lower 30s. Southside will be the warmest, at 37°, this is also why the Winter Storm Warning was allowed to expire for portions of Southside, temps will be warmer and ice accumulations will be lower.
The good news is that temperatures will rise starting tomorrow! High temperatures will make their way into the upper 40s and lower 50s. This will aid in melting and we will be dry for the majority of the day as well.
WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE
The big issue Wednesday is going to be continuous ice accumulation and power outages.
We’ll start off the day with ice accumulation between 9-10 AM with a brief break around lunchtime. By the time 2 PM rolls around, we’ll be looking at more freezing rain and rain throughout the region. Freezing rain will transition to rain tomorrow morning, and we’ll eventually clear out by midday.
Valentine’s Day looks nice, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 40s before rain returns this weekend.
TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE
We have now seen the changeover from snow to a wintery mix for most, with a few rain showers in the Southside Zone. This will continue into the evening, wrapping up around 3AM.
After a break from 3AM to 1PM Wednesday, a wintry mix will resume around 1-2PM and last through 10PM.
Snow totals from around the area range from 3″-12!" Measurements taken over the next 12 hours will look lower due to the freezing rain and sleet tamping down totals.
Any ice that accumulates due to freezing rain or sleet will stick to roadways with road temperatures like these. The entirety of the viewing area is now either at or below freezing on the roadways.
Stay inside and off the roadways if at all possible! Conditions will deteriorate further as the wintery mix moves further into the region.
The good news is that temperatures are on the rise as we head into the latter half of the week and weekend! Precipitation will fall as rain after Wednesday and seasonable temperatures will aid in melting.
TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE
Snow is making its way throughout the area this morning and will increase in intensity within the next few hours.
With conditions hovering right around freezing through most of the area, snow will easily stick before transitioning over to freezing rain and sleet later in the day.
Freezing rain lasts into early tomorrow morning, and will make traveling rather dangerous, particularly in the NRV.
MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
The Weather Authority Alert Day has been extended through Wednesday, February 12th, due to lasting winter weather impacts and flooding concerns.
The biggest concern will be significant snowfall and icy conditions. Due to mixed precipitation, snowfall totals will be tamped down with ice.
This event will begin as snowfall transition to a wintery mix, and end as rain on Wednesday evening. This two day event will run the gamut of different precipitation types. Rainfall will end the event, which brings flooding concerns. With the frozen ground, rain will have nowhere to go.
Forecasted snow totals have changed over the past few hours. Southside Zone and southern portions of the New River Valley will see around 1-2″, the further north you go within the New River Valley, Roanoke Valley and Lynchburg Zones, the more snow you will see; around 2-6″ depending on precipitation type. The Highlands Zone will receive the most snowfall, around 6-10."
MONDAY MORNING UPDATE
We’re starting to see more consistency with snowfall totals throughout each computer model, and it’s pretty close to what we have already forecasted. The National Weather Service agrees, and has issued a Winter Storm Warning that drapes the entirety of our viewing area.
I feel pretty comfortable with keeping snowfall totals the same this morning. I think the further southeast you go, the less snow you will see. The lowest totals will likely occur somewhere between Danville and South Boston (around 1″) where the greatest will by far be found in our counties in the Highlands zone, particularly towards the WV/VA border. Greenbriar County, WV could easily see around 8″, making it the region where we will likely see the most snow.
As I discussed Saturday on this article, a phenomenon known as “cold air damming” is primarily what is responsible for these temperatures over the next couple days. Combine that with a subtropical jetstream full of moisture and you essentially get a very complex winter storm.
The timing of this system has remained pretty consistent, with snow starting up in the NRV around 3 AM and progressively getting heavier throughout the viewing area around 6-7 AM. We’ll have snow shift over to a wintry mix later in the afternoon, before giving way to freezing rain in the evening, and rain later Wednesday.
Freezing rain is going to be a problem, especially in the New River Valley. Most everywhere will see at least 1/10th of an inch, which is easily enough to cause power outages and travel issues.
I don’t anticipate snow totals changing much barring something dramatic happening. Regardless whether changes occur or not, there will still be a widespread impact regardless of the exact totals.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
Snowfall totals appear to be somewhere within the ballpark of 3-6″ for a majority of the region. These totals will fluctuate until the event itself, so be sure to check back later for more updates. Ice and rain will end up flattening snowfall, giving the illusion of less snow than what we will actually receive.
It appears as if winter is set to make a big return on Tuesday.
A storm system from the south consisting of abundant moisture will make its way into our region Monday night into Tuesday. This system will interact with cold air wedged in our region to create a very impactful winter storm. Due to this, we have issued a Weather Authority Alert Day for the entirety of Tuesday.
WHEN:
Snowfall starts up late night Monday in portions of the New River Valley and Southside. Snow appears to be light at this point, but will exponentially ramp up as moisture interacts with colder air just north of Highway 460. As temperatures gradually warm to just above 32 degrees in the afternoon, snow will transition over to freezing rain primarily south of 460. North of I-64 will likely remain snow throughout the course of the day.
Rain will begin to make its way into the region late night Tuesday, before shifting back into a freezing rain in the early Wednesday morning hours. We’ll have a few more spotty showers and a few pockets of ice after this system exits, before the next storm system arrives a day later. The second storm does not appear to have a significant winter weather threat like this one.
WHERE:
This is where the forecast gets tricky. Anytime a setup involves cold air wedged behind the mountains, forecasts get exponentially more difficult. In this case, the strength of that wedge will determine A. the amount of snowfall our region sees and B. the geographic extent of snow and ice. Should this wedge become colder and stronger, snow totals will increase along with snowfall coverage. Should we run warmer, with a weaker wedge, it’s reasonable to expect more rain and freezing rain in the southern parts of our viewing area.
The strength of this cold air wedge is the biggest discrepancy when it comes to computer models, which is why some are putting out significantly more snowfall than others. We’ll likely see a bit more consistency between models later today and tomorrow, which will be when a much clearer picture is painted on snowfall totals.
IMPACTS:
Here is what is essentially guaranteed with this storm: there will be ample travel issues on the roads. Snow, ice, and rain will create some awfully slick conditions regardless of snowfall totals. It would not be surprising in the least to see many school closures Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.
The other big impact comes not only as a result of this storm, but the ones we have already seen as well as what’s after this storm. Significant rainfall will lead to quite a bit of a flood risk throughout the area, especially within the New River Valley. The combination of snowmelt and heavy rain will easily create concern for flooding along bodies of water and in areas with poor drainage. This will be a long term thing to monitor, whereas the winter weather risks will be more of a short term factor.
We will continue to update this article and our social media as we see more consistency with this forecast. One thing to note is that Sunday will be especially nice, with some sunshine and warmth in the forecast. I would strongly suggest getting any tasks that are outside done on Sunday, as well as preparing for this storm.
