ROANOKE, Va. – Wednesday Afternoon Update
Weather Authority Alert Day has now been cleared. Skies will continue to clear throughout the day, and this afternoon, nothing more than a few isolated showers are expected.
Wednesday Morning Update
The severe threat still remains the same for the day as showers and storms make their way into the region. The highest risk for the day continues to be gusty winds, but isolated flooding, hail, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Here is a look at futurecast at 9am. Notice the deep pockets of red embedded within the line of thunderstorms. This is where the winds and severe threat will be highest.
The line of storms continues to move east through the morning. By 10am, the Roanoke Valley will be dealing with the worst of the weather for the morning hours.
By 11am, the line has picked up momentum and moves into the Southside and Lynchburg areas. The sever potential will need to be watched closely as this system enters these zones.
By 4pm, the threat for isolated thunderstorms still exists. Some of these could develop hail, and perhaps even some rotation. Once the sun sets, the threat starts to diminish.
Winds will be present all day long with the potential for the highest gusts riding the line of thunderstorms pushing through. Here is a look at 10am.
By 11am, winds are still gusting and will continue to do so as we head into the afternoon. Slowly but surely they become sustained near 15-20mph and gust between 25-35mph until Thursday night.
Tuesday Night Update
Tuesday Morning Update
The severe risk has expanded for the day as many across the Gulf Coast and Lower Plains are under a level 1, 2, and 3 risk for severe weather today. This threat moves east tomorrow...
Most of the mid-Atlantic is now under a level 2 or 3 risk (slight & enhanced) for severe weather tomorrow.
Southwest and Central Virginia is now nearly all under the level 2/5 slight risk with areas in the NRV under a 1/5 risk, and portion of Southside now under a 3/5 risk.
Isolated showers/storms begin tomorrow morning before sunrise. By 7am, the main line of storms begins to push into the New River Valley. Gusty winds, and pockets of heavy downpours are possible.
By 8am, the sun is up, and is starting to add a little bit of fuel to the line of storms as it begins to push east.
Around 10am, we are looking at potentially the strongest winds and heaviest downpours pushing through the Roanoke Valley, and into the Lynchburg and Southside zones.
Most of the storms push east and the severe threats concludes for most of us by noon tomorrow. However, the winds will pick up big time and continue to gust between 30-50mph at times.
Here is a look at the main severe weather threats and their chances of occurring. The wind will be the biggest threat. If you have items outdoors that blow away easily, you will want to bring them inside tonight.
An isolated tornado can never be ruled out in an event like this. Isolated hail is also possible with flooding being possible in discrete/low lying areas where heavy pockets of rain push over.
Monday Morning Update
We are tracking the first big system of the spring season that brings the threat for severe weather. The Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast will be the first to see severe weather Monday, and eventually into Tuesday. A level 3/5 risk (Tuesday) is currently in place for our friends to our west.
Eventually this same system treks east and impacts us on Wednesday. The risk for severe weather includes nearly all of the mid-Atlantic and extends down the east coast.
Here locally, a level 1/5 marginal risk is in place for the Roanoke Valley, NRV and Highlands, while a level 2/5 slight risk is in place for Southside and the Lynchburg area.
At the moment, the areas for the highest risks are along and east of US 29.
Here is a look at futurecast at 7 a.m. Wednesday morning. Heavy rain and gusty winds will start prior to this time, but the coverage grows through the morning.
By 10 a.m., the majority of the front has pushed through with lingering showers and storms pushing in behind. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible in the storms/showers that follow. The risk of an isolated tornado is also non-zero.
Lunch hour will bring isolated storms, some of which will pack a punch.
There is a caveat to the timing of this system. If it comes in a bit slower and the timing is pushed back, then the impacts will be greater as temperatures heat up, and instability becomes more present.
If the system moves in earlier, then the risk will likely decrease. This is something Your Local Weather Authority is watching closely as the next 24-36 hours will be pivotal in nailing this forecast. As for now, the warning signs are there.
Winds at nearly 5,000 feet will be howling. They will be between 60 mph and 80 mph. If any of these winds get mixed down, some damage to property could occur. The winds will also be twisting with height, which increases the risk for isolated tornadoes.
There won’t be too much fuel for storms out there because this system is expected to move in during the morning hours. Again, if the timing is shifted back a couple of hours our temperatures will heat up and increase the storm energy.
To stay up to date on all things weather, download our weather app.