Roanoke, VA – Friday Night update
4:30 p.m. Friday afternoon update:
3:30 p.m. Friday afternoon update
FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Several severe thunderstorms are now moving into Southwest Virginia. As of 2:56PM there are no active tornado warnings, however there are several severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and hail.
The heaviest bands of rainfall will soon overtake Bland, Wythe, Pulaski, and Montgomery Counties.
Current severe thunderstorm watches are highlighted in pink and active until 6PM tonight. Current warnings are highlighted in orange, with both polygons expiring at 4PM.
We are also watching these storms closely for rotation, as of now there are no concerning spots. However, that could change within the coming hours as these storms continue to march through and new storms pop up.
We will continue to keep you updated on air and online. Stay weather aware this evening!
FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE
For most of the region, the cap that I mentioned earlier in this article did not break yesterday. We had a few severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday, but nothing that produced any significant damage, at least that has been reported.
Friday I believe has way more potential for conducive severe weather. My primary timeframe for any kind of severe weather is going to be between 1-5 PM, with a few rounds of storms to race through our area. These storms will be capable of damaging winds, downpours, and quarter sized hail. There is a low, but non-zero tornado risk, similarly to yesterday. I think the greatest tornadic risk will be further west into parts of Kentucky and the Midwest.
Round 1 arrives around 2-3 PM today. This will be the initial line of storms that passes ahead of the front. These have the most potential for severe weather, and will move rather quickly. This broken line of storm cells is known as a Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS. I do not believe this storm will become a derecho for Virginia.
Round 2 arrives EARLY Saturday, and does not appear conducive for severe weather. At the worst, we may see a few rumbles of thunder and some heavier rain.
Thursday evening update:
With temperatures gradually warming and moisture within the area, there’s an increased chance severe weather could develop Thursday and Friday.
THURSDAY-
The best way I can describe Thursday night is that this will be a boom or bust setup, where if storms fire, they’ll likely end up severe. However, that’s IF they fire up.
There is a strong layer of drier air higher in the atmosphere that is keeping this us dry currently, this is known as a cap. Think of it like if you shake up a soda. If you put the cap on tight, it’s going to take a lot for it to blow up. If it’s looser, then it makes it easier to explode. It’s like that with thunderstorms, and describes our setup for today pretty well.
The chances of that cap breaking is 50/50. If it does, we’re looking at damaging storms with hail greater than 2″ in diameter affecting the area between 5 PM and 7:30 PM. Areas east of Roanoke have the greatest risk of severe weather. As with any supercell, there is always the chance of a stray tornado, but the odds are very low. Damaging winds are the secondary concern.
FRIDAY-
Friday’s setup is pretty similar to Thursday’s, with a few minor discrepancies. The biggest difference between Thursday and Friday is the timing, where storms will fire up earlier in the day, with the greatest threat between 10:30-4:30. Damaging winds will be the primary concern with this system. Hail is also possible, although the threat is not as great as what we’re seeing for Thursday. A stray tornado is also possible.
A lot of what happens on Friday is going to depend upon what happens Thursday, so the forecast for Friday is a bit murkier.
As always, we’ll continue to keep you updated online and on air with the latest updates.
