ROANOKE, Va. – Recent years have featured extremely active hurricane seasons. How does the forecast look for this year?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their official forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season not too long ago. Both Colorado State and NOAA are forecasting a slightly more active hurricane season compared to average.
Let’s break down why this is.
When forecasting for an entire hurricane season, it can be a bit tricky. Based on historical data, and trends we can gather a good idea of how the season will unfold. We are currently transitioning out of a La Niña pattern, but the current climate indicates the La Niña pattern may stick around for some time. Many models are indicative of either a neutral phase of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) or a weak La Niña.
During a La Niña year, we typically see above normal tropical cyclone activity due to less wind shear in the Atlantic Basin. For a neutral phase year, we see a near average amount of hurricane/storm activity.
Right now, there is a weak La Niña signal that is outlasting its anticipated expiration date. This is a big reason why the forecasts from Colorado State and NOAA feature above normal activity this season.
Lets try to put into perspective how our global weather and climate respond to this.
The ocean is a key indicator for how our weather will unfold at large scales. Its high heat capacity stores energy better than the atmosphere does, and takes a lot of time to change. The atmosphere usually reacts to changes in the ocean because the two are coupled and react to one another, but it takes time.
Therefore, the delay in La Niña weakening may trigger a slightly more active hurricane season based on weaker wind shear in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Basin.
The 2025 Hurricane Season Names have been released. If you would like to learn more about them and their pronunciation, you can visit here.
As we continue into the month of June, there are some hot spots where tropical development is most likely to occur. The Gulf and East coast is where we typically see storms form this early in the season.
Historically, a handful of hurricanes have developed in the month of June. Over the last several decades, this spot has been just off the west coast of Florida.
While June is by far not the most active month for hurricanes, they can develop. However, it is a good reminder that September 10th is the average peak for hurricane activity.
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