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Heat wave’s days are numbered as rain, storm threat increases

An unsettled weather pattern brings a very long heat wave to an end later this week.

Flood threat for the next three days

ROANOKE, Va. – Storms Wednesday provided temporary relief from the heat, but they weren’t quick enough to stop Roanoke’s historic 90° stretch. Wednesday’s storms will be much spottier, which will allow more heat to build throughout the region. Roanoke will see its 29th straight 90° day, and Lynchburg will see its 13th.

Wednesday's afternoon forecast

Any spotty storms Wednesday will mostly be near and south of U.S. 460, focused along a stalled front.

That will change by Thursday. We may have just enough time to squeeze out one last 90° reading in Roanoke, Lexington, Bedford, Rocky Mount, Lynchburg and Southside. Otherwise, Thursday kicks off an unsettled pattern.

Storms Thursday will be more numerous and will have the ability to produce localized flooding/flash flooding, thanks to abundant moisture from top to bottom in the atmosphere.

FutureTracker - Thursday afternoon

As our front meanders nearby, showers and storms will be numerous at times again Friday. (This may not be just an afternoon ordeal.)

Our front begins to lift north, but will still have enough energy to kick off more showers and storms through Saturday. This will all bring us relief from the high heat, but could still pose a localized flood threat at times.

What We're Tracking - Saturday afternoon

We expect typical summertime weather Sunday, with mainly hit-or-miss storms in the heat of the day. It’s at this time that we really need to see where our next tropical system goes. Isaías will form in the Caribbean Wednesday and move northwest over the next few days.

Official track on the storm that will soon be Isaías

There are two ways this storm plays out for us.

Two possible scenarios with the storm that will be Isaías

Scenario 1.

This storm moves over Hispaniola (the Dominican Republic and Haiti). Their mountains tear it up a bit. However, this would be a broad system that moves closer to Florida and sends more moisture our way. This would mean more rain/storm chances early next week and the chance for flooding.

Scenario 2.

This storm moves north of Hispaniola and can strengthen a bit. However, it would be steered more toward the East Coast. In this scenario, we’d be left a little drier and hotter.

We’re leaning toward scenario 1, as we have seen more reliable forecast data shifting west in recent days. We will keep you posted on this storm, its progression and its possible impact on our area.

About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.