Tracking Nicole: Tropical system to bring soaking rain, possible severe storms Veterans Day

In addition to heavy rain, there is the threat for a tornado or two Friday

ROANOKE, Va. – Nicole made landfall near Vero Beach, Florida early Thursday morning as a Category 1 hurricane.

Timing

Well north of that, we’ll see clouds streaming in Thursday.

We stay dry through the daylight hours, but our first outer band of rain will move in after 9 or 10 p.m. from the south.

FutureTracker - 2 a.m. Friday

Heavy rain is likely during the morning commute Friday, so use extra caution during that time.

The wind won’t be awful, but the rain will be tropical in nature in some spots.

Some breaks in the rain allow us to warm up, making the air more conducive for thunderstorms (read more on that in the Threats section of this article) late morning into the afternoon.

FutureTracker - 11 a.m. Friday

Our last gasp of widespread, heavy rain comes as Nicole merges with a front Friday evening. It’s at this time that the wind will gust from 20 to 35 mph.

FutureTracker - 6 p.m. Friday

By late Friday night and Saturday morning, Nicole’s remnants will have pushed to the east.

FutureTracker - late Friday night into early Saturday morning

We’ll be left with scattered, light rain showers and a gusty wind by Saturday.

Threats

The one thing we all see out of Nicole - rain. Rain totals mostly reach between 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher totals along the spine of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Localized flooding is a possibility in this part of the area.

Projected rain totals from Nicole on Friday

In addition to this, we’ll be situated in the northeast quadrant of Nicole.

This is where the air spins more with tropical systems, so there is the threat for a tornado or two after 10 a.m. Friday.

Tornado risk after 10 a.m. Friday

That threat - noted above - is slightly higher in areas shaded in yellow.

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Other Forecast Info

Despite clouds and rain from Nicole, we’ll be dealing with a tropical airmass. This means temperatures rise into the 60s with some of us in the 70s by Friday.

High temperature forecast through Friday, 11/11/2022

Saturday will be windy with temperatures staying steady in the 50s and 60s throughout the day.

The colder air catches up by Sunday through next Tuesday with highs mostly in the 40s.

What we're tracking by Saturday, 11/12/2022

Monday morning starts in the 20s with temperatures near freezing Tuesday morning.

Another storm system brings the chance for a patchy, light wintry mix before a cold rain settles in Tuesday afternoon.

More to come on that system once we get Nicole out of the picture.


About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.