ROANOKE, Va. – Sunday Morning Update
Radar scans this afternoon are showing snowfall along with a bit of dry air working its way into the NRV, Southside, and Lynchburg Zones.
Although snowfall is still showing up on radar scans, ground truth reports are still coming in as a sleet and mixed precipitation event.
We will continue with this sleet and freezing rain event throughout the afternoon and evening; this will decrease snowfall totals and increase ice totals. Dry air is currently working its way into the region. We will continue to monitor how long this dry slot lasts before moisture begins to fill back in.
Road conditions this morning are snow and ice-covered, with the cold air continuing to stick around; we will be at risk these next few days for a significant refreeze.
As this mixed precipitation moves through today, we will still add to the ice and freezing rain totals. Below, on the left of this graphic, ice totals are listed. We are still expecting ice totals to increase throughout the day. It is keep to stay off the roadways if at all possible.
Saturday Evening Update:
Snow began in the New River Valley just around 4 and has been spotted all across the region. As time goes on, the coverage is becoming more widespread.
That said, the system has made yet another northward shift; this means we are likely to see less snow and more ice. The snow is expected to transition into sleet overnight. By sunrise, the sleet will become more of a wintry mix that will end in freezing rain.
Nonetheless, the snow totals have dropped slightly. The ice amount remains to be the same as this morning, but has a slightly earlier arrival time.
Lastly, wanted to remind you all to stay calm, and absolutely stay warm!
Saturday Morning Update
As of 7 AM this morning, we are seeing snowfall make its way into portions of our viewing area. While the snow is showing up on the radar, it is not actually reaching the ground quite yet. We still have to saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere before flakes reach the ground.
Snow will begin from 4-7 PM tonight with a transition to sleet not long after early Sunday morning. Saturday night will be a snowfall event, and Sunday will be more of an ice event.
If you still need to go out and get supplies, this morning and afternoon will be the time to do so before the snow and ice set in later on in the early evening hours!
Sunday morning, the ice will set in, and we continue with a mixed precip type most of the day on Sunday.
Freezing rain and ice totals will be worse the further south you travel. Southern parts of the NRV and Southside will see higher totals than the NEV, Roanoke Valley, and Lynchburg Zones. The Highlands Zone will see the least ice accumulation.
Our latest snow map is below. Stay safe this weekend, friends!
Friday Morning Update
A few changes have been made to the forecast! A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the entirety of our viewing area. This warning will expire at 1 PM on Monday.
The first half of the day on Saturday will be very overcast and cold, with precipitation not arriving until later.
Futurecast shows the first flakes of this system arriving around 4-6 PM on Saturday night.
Saturday night will be a snowfall event, with the precipitation changeover not happening until Sunday morning. Likely all day Sunday, we will see a mixed precipitation event that will not end until around midnight to 1 AM on Monday.
As this system has shifted north, ice totals have increased in the models as well. We will still see the same trends, with the southern portions of our viewing area seeing more ice than further north.
Please make the necessary preparations today and tomorrow morning! As we see this northern shift in the storm, we also increase the likelihood of widespread power outages.
Snow totals have lowered a bit with this northern shift as well!
Thursday Evening Update:
Much has changed in the model runs with this storm, but fortunately, we are getting a better idea of what is likely to happen.
Though it is not the “Snowmaggedon” many have been hoping for, we are still looking at getting several inches of snow. Unfortunately, that snow will be topped with ice, and lots of it.
As for timing, the cold will be arriving Friday night and the snow will start falling late Saturday afternoon into the evening.
Snow will accumulate through the night and begin to shift into more wintry precipitation as the air aloft starts to warm and defrost the falling snow. That said, freezing rain will be a concern early Sunday morning in Southside and closer to the afternoon hours for the Highlands as it shifts northwards.
The cold air that comes Friday night will stick around for the days following. With that, snow and ice are likely to stick around for a bit even after the system exits the region.
It is vital to begin your preperation now if you haven’t already, but also remember to remain calm. Stay warm out there!
Wednesday Morning Update
Concern is increasing for widespread impacts from this next winter storm. Widespread snowfall will overtake the area both Saturday and Sunday, with a wintry mix possible as this system exits on Sunday.
We will hone in on accumulation amounts later this evening, but they will be subject to change as weather models produce more runs and we get closer to the event.
While we recommend staying home during this weekend’s weather, please follow this winter supply checklist if you must travel.
It is also important to make sure you have items such as water, flashlights, blankets, medications and non-perishables in the event you are unable to leave your home.
One of the main unknowns with this system is the type of precipitation we will be receiving; the reason being, the slightest change in the temperature aloft can mean the biggest difference in the precipitation we see.
Even the tiniest change in what layer of the atmosphere switches to below freezing temperatures could mean the differerce in freezing rain and sleet.
Tuesday Evening:
After a relatively quiet start to January, this weekend looks likely to bring in a quite hefty winter storm.
WHAT WE KNOW-
The setup of this storm is similar to past major winter weather events we’ve experienced. We’ll have cold air locked in from the north, and ample moisture flowing in from the south.
Weather models are also (mostly) consistent, with significant snowfall totals across the board when comparing the different models. Usually when models are consistent this far out, it’s a sign that a winter event is more likely than not to come to fruition.
Odds are, we’ll end up seeing some kind of winter weather this weekend.
WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW-
The exact totals of snowfall range within the area. Most models are putting out at least 10″ for our area. HOWEVER, given that we are still 5 days out, we’ll likely get a clearer picture as to how much snow we could receive as the cold air from the north begins moving south.
The timing of this storm is also something to watch. This for sure is going to be a weekend event. That’s known. However, whether this storm starts early Saturday or late Saturday is what needs some ironing out. From a preliminary standpoint, I’d say there is a better chance of the first flakes falling towards the second half of the day Saturday.
BOTTOM LINE-
Whether we get 5 inches of snow, 10 inches of snow, or 20 inches of snow, at the end of the day it’s going to be an impactful storm. It’s also going to be bitterly cold, which will lead to snow likely sticking around for some time.
Make sure you’re preparing in advance for this storm, as it will be better safe than sorry by the time the storm arrives.