65ºF

Tracking another line of rain and storms this week; followed by more wind

We start the week dry, but a strong cold front brings us back to old habits

A line of possibly strong-to-severe storms is forecast for Wednesday night
A line of possibly strong-to-severe storms is forecast for Wednesday night

ROANOKE, Va. – After a weekend storm system, the wind is back at it again Monday. Sustained wind speeds will be between 10 and 20 mph, gusting higher at times. The good news is that we’ll see more sun throughout the day, pushing our temperatures into the 60s.

Come Tuesday, a warm front will be close by and will provide a focal point for some occasional showers. That point looks to be along and north of U.S. 460 in the morning.

FutureTracker - Tuesday morning
FutureTracker - Tuesday morning

A few more spotty showers will be possible after 4 or 5 p.m. Tuesday. Highs Tuesday, despite more clouds, will get into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

This warm front lifts to the north, as a storm system continues to develop and strengthen to our west. This will introduce a gusty wind out of the south on Wednesday. We’ll stay dry most of the day, with highs in the 70s.

As this system gets closer, things could turn a little rocky for us.

Regardless of severe/damaging storms, a line of (at least) heavy rain will develop around/shortly after dinnertime Wednesday and move from west to east. It may slow down, as a secondary area of low pressure forms near the Georgia-South Carolina line. Localized flooding, in any case, will have to be monitored closely into Wednesday night. Latest forecast data is indicating the possibility of 1-3″ of rain, which will lead to a rise in creeks, streams and perhaps rivers too.

A line of possibly strong-to-severe storms is forecast for Wednesday night
A line of possibly strong-to-severe storms is forecast for Wednesday night

When forecasting the possibility of severe weather, we look for a few things. Instability (thunderstorm fuel) is questionable, due to the amount of warm air above us. That can limit a storm from reaching its full potential. There’s plenty of wind shear, which allows storms to maintain strength. Rotation is questionable as well in this case. If the line turns severe, the main concern would be potentially damaging wind gusts.

Severe weather ingredients - Wednesday
Severe weather ingredients - Wednesday

After this cold front passes through, there will still be enough moisture on the back end of the system for clouds and occasional showers Thursday.

High temperature trend - next 5 days
High temperature trend - next 5 days

We’ll turn quite windy at times (again) Thursday and Friday before a weekend warm-up. In fact, some of us will get into the 80s Sunday afternoon!


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